Joe Biden’s declaration that he will not be seeking re-election did not come as a surprise to the cognoscenti. The 81-year-old is the oldest person ever to occupy the Oval Office. There had been mounting worries for some years about his mental declension. A calamitous underperformance in a debate against Donald Trump revealed just how grave Biden’s mental state is.
The Biden camp said for a week that President Joseph Biden was as clear as a bell. The claim that Joe Robinette Biden is not compos mentis was dismissed as a Republican smear. Dr. Jill Biden, the president’s wife, vociferated that her husband was completely lucid. But behind the scenes, there was consternation among Democrats. Biden’s aides were fully apprised of how bad Biden’s mind has become. They publicly said that Biden would still contest the forthcoming election. To keep that option open they had to say that Biden was 100% committed. Anything less would have jeopardised any chance of standing for election. The Democrats were also buying time for a Plan B. If Biden did not seek re-election, then who would run in his stead? The obvious candidate is Kamala Harris. But the Vice-President has approval ratings even more woeful than that of J R Biden. The Democrats wanted to ensure that if Biden dropped out, they would unite around an alternative quickly. The party did not need weeks of bickering as the party tried to agree on a candidate.
Several prominent Democrats broke ranks and publicly called for Biden to withdraw. People spoke to Biden privately, but that did not seem to work. Therefore, they felt compelled to speak their minds openly. Many donors said they would not gift any money while Biden was still the candidate.
On July 21 Biden made his announcement. The Democratic Convention is in August 2024 where a candidate is to be formally announced. Of the 4,000-odd delegates almost all of them are pledged to Biden.
Since July 21 events have moved very swiftly. Ms Harris has emerged as the overwhelming favourite. The other contenders have not indicated an eagerness to seek the nomination.
Who are these contenders?
Gavin Newsom is the 56-year-old Governor of California. He is tall and handsome: many people are superficial enough to vote for someone due to his appearance. Newsom is also cruel and violent in a way that appeals to Democrats. He supports the mass murder of children. He also refused parole to Sirahn Sirahn who shot dead Senator Robert Kennedy in 1968. Sirahn is a Palestinian who objected to Robert Kennedy advocating for the oppression and occupation of Palestine. Senator Kennedy was the younger brother of John F Kennedy. Newsom is also a sworn enemy of Palestine.
Gretchen Whitmer is the Governor of Michigan. This is quite an achievement as it is a state that often votes Republican. She is 50 and it is best for Harris to pick a running mate who is younger than her. Whitmer is also an outspoken hater of children in a manner that Democrats find highly attractive.
Pete Butigieg is an open homosexual and Transport Secretary. The baby-faced 40-year-old was a Rhodes Scholar and served with the US Military in Afghanistan. He boasts that he can speak 6 languages. He is part of a tiny minority: Maltese-American.
Ms Harris will likely choose someone younger than her to balance her age. At 59 she is no spring chicken. But even her most inveterate enemy does not doubt her mental soundness.
Kamala Harris was born in California to a Jamaican father and an Indian-origin mother. Both were academics. Ms Harris was raised in Christianity and Hinduism. She is the first female VP, the first Asian VP and the first African American VP. As she sometimes professes Hinduism, she is the first VP to belong to a faith other than Christianity. Note her name is enunciated ‘’KOM a la’’ and not ‘’ka MA la’’ as Americans often do.
Ms Harris was educated at Howard University which is historically black. She qualified as a lawyer. She rose to be attorney-general of California. It is said a long-term affair with a married man advanced her career. She has been excoriated by the left for sending people to prison for possession of tiny amounts of cannabis.
At 50 Harris, wed for the first time. Her husband Doug Emhoff has two daughters from his first marriage.
Ms Harris’s hauteur puts off many. She publicly stated that Biden was of sound mind when she knew he was not. Her being a candidate perhaps does not change things as much as some think. Few believed that if Biden were re-elected he would see out the second term. People said: vote for Biden and get Harris.
K Harris is almost certainly going to be the Democrat’s candidate. But her approval ratings are appalling. They seem to have undergone a leap in the last few days. That usually happens when someone becomes a candidate.
If the Democrats did not pick her, it would go down very badly with African-Americans, Asians and women. But she is bitterly unpopular with swathes of white males.
Harris will probably choose a white man as her running mate. Two women on the ballot or two non-whites might be seen as too left field. She will probably select someone from a swing state. California is safe for the Democrats. It is perceived as a loony liberal by Middle America.
Trump had a 60% chance of winning when it became plain that Biden was mentally obtunded. But with Biden, the Democrats at last had the incumbency factor. But now that Biden is gone Trump has a 65% chance of winning. The advantage the Democrats win by dumping Biden is now Trump is the old candidate. He has been suffering from pre-Alzheimer’s for several years. But many Republicans are impervious to evidence and reason.
Another Trump presidency will likely be worse than the first. He is losing control of his faculties. But his camarilla may have learnt from their mistakes. Whoever has face time will be able to convince Trump to make the decision they want and sign the documents they put before him. They will appoint more Trumpist judges. These judges will at least defend a child’s right to life.
If Trump is convicted of any federal crimes, he will try to pardon himself. No president has ever been convicted of a crime. Can he pardon himself? The Supreme Court will decide.
The Constitution allows someone only two presidential terms. But Trump might even seek a third.
The Trumpists will probably cheat more effectively in future elections. They almost succeeded in overturning the results of the 2020 election.
Trump will reduce military aid to Ukraine if he does not cut it off altogether. Europe could arm the Ukrainians sufficiently but Europe is too shortsighted and tightfisted to do so. The Ukraine War will end for a while with Ukraine having to cede land. The Russians will rebuild their forces and attack again in a few years perhaps after Trump is gone because then they will not be breaking a promise to Trump not to invade again while he is president.
Israel will be backed to the hilt by Trump. Even more Palestinians will be murdered.
The chance of a war against Iran will increase. Trump may want to prove he is tough despite sometimes criticising the liberation of Iraq and Afghanistan. The Israelis know how to butter Trump up. They even named a town after him. Tel Aviv may convince him that a war against Iran will redound to his magnitude.
The Taiwan issue could go either way. Trump could cut a deal with China to say the US will stand aside if China retakes the island. But the Taiwanese might be able to persuade him to guard the island.
The erraticism and unpredictability of Trump mean that he will make the world less safe. He will play havoc with the economy as he did before.
There will be more racist and xenophobic rhetoric. Trump might finally build a bit of that border wall.
Trump is no friend of India despite Hindu hardliners lauding him for his Islamophobia. India can expect no favours from him.
J D Vance is in some ways a good pick by Trump. He is 40 years younger than Trump. He has an engaging life story coming from a poor family. He served in the Marines but is highly educated. He is also an opportunist who once called Trump ‘Hitler’. It shows how morally bankrupt and utterly cynical the two men are.
Mr. Vance is a lockstep conservative. He has savaged Kamala Harris.
The author is a political analyst from the UK. He can be watched on YouTube: George from Ireland