At the time of writing this, it can be presumed that Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. To make it formal soon, Kamala Harris has to accept defeat. There is no official declaration of results by an election commission or official in the US, unlike the case in India. Many will recall in this connection the fact that Trump himself did not accept the results of the 2020 election leading to the consequent ruckus and pell-mell that ended in six people getting killed in the riot on Capitol Hill.
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A system of electoral college that is used in the US to determine victory instead of the candidate who gets the most votes - first past the post system - is also a reason for delay and suspense. The candidate who wins 270 seats in the Electoral College consisting of 538 representatives according to the population of the states will become the President. Among the states predicted to be the most volatile in terms of majority support are the seven 'swing states' of Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin who will decide the outcome of the election.
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The incumbent President Joe Biden was nominated as the Democratic candidate against the former President Donald Trump, who was nominated as the Republican Party candidate without much difficulty. The nomination of incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, an Indian-born black woman, happened in August when the Democratic Party itself felt after the first televised debate where the 81-year-old Biden showed signs of age-related debility and cognitive deficiencies. Biden withdrew from the race and threw his weight behind Kamala Harris. This left only three months for Kamala's campaign, a short period considering the detailed process in the American system. However, Kamala was soon seen making up for lost time in her campaign, and made the short time an advantage.
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Meanwhile, Kamala's popularity among people and approval rate increased after her performance in the televised debate with Trump. In the campaign, there was a certain level of relative charisma involved and support for Kamala which helped her. The fact that 78-year-old Trump, who had been bashing Biden for his age, was suddenly left facing Kamala Harris, who was 19 years his junior, and this factor worked to her advantage. However, a president cannot win the election on the back of such factors alone, a fact now ratified by Trump's win. In addition, Trump now becomes the first US President in 127 years to be re-elected after losing once. It appears that he was mainly helped by sweeping votes in all the seven 'swing states'.
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Kamala entered the fray overcoming some negative factors. Her being a woman and a person of color stand out on top. Although Barack Obama broke the barrier of disapproval of black people, Kamala cannot claim Obama's personality or erudition. In 2016, Hillary Clinton ran as an almost strong female candidate, but she also lost after long sensations until the last minute of the vote count. It can be said that the supporters and opponents of both candidates were almost equal in strength based on their positions on domestic and international issues. As for the positions on issues such as the economy, gun control, immigration control, medical care coverage through health insurance, abortion restrictions, and access to employment, Trump has a track record of four years in office. But when it comes to Kamala, she has to remain tagged to the record of that of President Biden on such issues.
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There seems to have been an impression among voters that Trump has the courage to make a decision and stick to it, even when he has a controversial position. Along the southern border, there are supporters of Trump who see illegal immigrants from Mexico as a burden and a small minority who oppose him. However, the main difference in foreign policy will be the war in Ukraine. Till now, the US has been taking an anti-Russian posture on the matter by stubbornly going by to ideological tradition. Trump's completely different opinion on it will change the equations of the world nations. What is crucial is how much it can be put into practice once he comes to power.
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On the issue of Palestine, both candidates have vowed that the United States is committed to Israel's 'security'. The only difference is that Kamala sympathizes with the women and children of Gaza who get killed. But what will become more crucial in future will be in the matter of Iran. Trump had abruptly pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that the United Nations signed with endorsement by Barack Obama's administration; the deal had provided for curbs on nuclear tests in return for easing of sanctions. It would not bode well to have such a person as the new occupant of the White House.