ICJ to rule on whether Myanmar committed genocide against Rohingya

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) will deliver its judgment on Thursday on whether Myanmar committed genocide against its Rohingya minority, in a landmark case that could influence international law and a separate genocide case against Israel.

The court in The Hague has spent seven years examining allegations brought by The Gambia that Myanmar violated the 1948 UN Genocide Convention through its persecution of the Rohingya.

The case follows a 2017 military crackdown that forced hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims to flee to Bangladesh. More than one million Rohingya refugees remain in the country, while fewer than 600,000 are estimated to live in Myanmar.

Myanmar has denied committing genocide, claiming its military operations targeted an uprising by insurgents. The military launched what it described as clearance operations after a Rohingya militant group carried out attacks in Rakhine State in 2017.

A key issue before the court is whether Myanmar's actions demonstrated an intent to destroy the Rohingya as a group. This is a central requirement for establishing genocide under international law.

Antonia Mulvey, founder of Legal Action Worldwide, which represents Rohingya survivors, said she was "cautiously optimistic" that the court would hold Myanmar accountable. She said patterns of attacks, village burnings, killings and sexual violence showed an attempt to destroy the community.

The court also heard directly from Rohingya survivors during closed-door sessions in January. Their accounts included allegations of killings, sexual violence and attacks on children.

The ICJ has never before found a state responsible for genocide. Previous cases involving atrocities in the Balkans did not result in such a finding, although Serbia was held legally responsible for failing to prevent the Srebrenica genocide.

The ruling could also offer an indication of how the court might approach South Africa's separate genocide case against Israel over its military campaign in Gaza.

A finding against Myanmar could increase international pressure on its leader Min Aung Hlaing, who headed the military during the 2016-2017 crackdown. He is also being investigated by the International Criminal Court over alleged crimes against humanity.