New Delhi: India recorded the highest absolute growth in greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, according to the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) latest Emissions Gap Report, released ahead of the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), reported The Wire.
Despite this surge, India’s per capita emissions remain significantly below the global average, alongside Indonesia. However, experts warn that the country’s missed deadline to submit an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) could draw scrutiny at COP30, The Telegraph reported.
The report, titled ‘Off Target’, highlights that global efforts remain insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C. Global emissions reached a record 57.7 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in 2024, a 2.3% increase from 2023. The G20 bloc, which includes India, accounted for 77% of these emissions, with most member countries reporting increases.
India, China and Indonesia were the top three contributors to absolute emissions growth, with Indonesia leading in growth rate (4.6%), followed by India (3.6%). China’s growth slowed to 0.5%. Meanwhile, the European Union saw a 2.1% decline in emissions.
UNEP noted that only 64 parties, representing 63% of global emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs by the September 30 cut-off, despite a Paris Agreement requirement to do so by February 2025. The report warned that even with updated pledges, projected reductions by 2035 remain modest and uncertain.
India’s current NDC, submitted in August 2022, commits to reducing emissions intensity by 45% from 2005 levels and increasing non-fossil energy capacity to 50% by 2030. It also aims to enhance carbon sink volumes by 2.5–3 GtCO₂e. UNEP found that India is on track to meet these targets, having already overachieved by 15%.
However, the report flagged concerns over India’s net-zero strategy, citing a lack of transparency on carbon removal and absence of annual reporting. These gaps, coupled with the country’s emissions spike, could invite international pressure.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged nations not to surrender to the inevitability of a temporary overshoot above 1.5°C. “It’s a reason to step up and speed up,” he said. “The science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen echoed the urgency, stating, “we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window.” She added that proven solutions, including affordable renewable energy and methane mitigation, already exist.
Richard Black of Ember noted that while NDCs are important signals, national renewable energy plans and deployment rates offer a more optimistic outlook. “The clean energy economy offers more opportunities than sticking with the fossil fuel model,” he said.
The report also underscored persistent emissions inequality, with wealthier individuals driving disproportionate emissions through consumption and investment, and few policies addressing this imbalance globally.