The high-altitude regions of Jammu and Kashmir have warmed by nearly 1 degree Celsius over the past two decades, raising concerns over glacier melt, water security and ecological changes in the Western Himalayas, according to a new study.
The study, titled "Warming of the high-mountainous climate sensitive Jammu and Kashmir during the period 1980-2024", was conducted by scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur and the India Meteorological Department.
It analysed climate data collected between 1980 and 2024.
The researchers found that middle and high-altitude regions are experiencing much faster warming than the lower plains. Bhaderwah, a mid-elevation station, recorded an increase in annual average temperature of about 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade, translating to nearly 1 degree Celsius since the beginning of the century.
In contrast, lower-lying areas remained relatively stable, with Jammu plains showing a slight cooling trend of around 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade.
The study found that the most significant warming has occurred at night. Minimum temperatures in middle and high-altitude regions increased by 0.1 to 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade, while during the pre-monsoon season, nighttime temperatures rose by as much as 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade.
Daytime maximum temperatures showed only modest increases across the region.
According to the researchers, the uneven warming pattern is driven by local factors, including declining humidity and changes in surface albedo, or the amount of sunlight reflected by the ground. The region's highly varied terrain, ranging from about 1 kilometre to more than 6 kilometres above sea level, causes these climatic factors to affect different elevations differently.
The scientists warned that a temperature rise of nearly 1 degree Celsius in just two decades could have serious consequences for the Himalayan ecosystem, including accelerated glacier melt, disruption of seasonal water supplies and changes in local agriculture.