Global efforts to contain the climate crisis remain critically off track.
New reports are warning that the planet is still on course for a 2.6°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
The findings, released ahead of the COP30 summit in Brazil, highlight how fossil fuel emissions have reached a record high while governments fail to deliver the ambitious pledges needed to avert catastrophic heating.
Two major analyses — from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) and the Global Carbon Project (GCP) — paint a stark picture of stagnation.
Despite nearly a decade of promises under the Paris Agreement, nations’ current climate plans have barely slowed global warming. CAT’s latest update shows that new national targets remain insufficient, marking the fourth straight year without meaningful progress. The projected 2.6°C rise mirrors last year’s outlook, suggesting that global policies are failing to bend the curve.
Scientists warn that such warming would push the planet past dangerous tipping points — disrupting ocean currents, collapsing coral reefs, and causing irreversible damage to ice sheets and rainforests. The effects are already visible: the Earth has warmed by about 1.3°C since the Industrial Revolution, fueling more frequent and intense droughts, wildfires, storms, and heatwaves worldwide.
The GCP’s findings are equally alarming.
Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to rise by another 1% in 2025, the highest level in history. Though the growth rate has slowed from past decades — thanks in part to renewable energy expansion — the world has yet to reach peak emissions. Renewables continue to lag behind soaring energy demand, especially in developing economies.
While the Paris Agreement requires countries to strengthen their commitments regularly, only about 100 nations have updated their climate targets ahead of COP30. Even with the inclusion of net-zero pledges, the long-term outlook has slightly worsened, now projecting 2.2°C of warming. Political setbacks, such as the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris accord under the Trump administration, have also undermined progress.
Adding to the challenge is the weakening of natural carbon sinks.
Tropical forests in South America and Southeast Asia — once crucial absorbers of carbon dioxide — are now becoming net emitters due to deforestation and rising temperatures.
There are some signs of progress: 35 economies have managed to grow while cutting emissions, showing that decoupling is possible. Yet, experts stress that global reductions must be steeper and faster to stabilise the climate. Atmospheric CO₂ levels are expected to reach 425 parts per million (ppm) in 2025, far above the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm.
At the upcoming COP30 talks, the G77 group and China — representing nearly 80% of the world’s population — have voiced support for a global phaseout of fossil fuels. However, several developed nations, including Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, the UK, and EU members, have yet to endorse this call.
Scientists and policymakers are urging an accelerated transition away from coal, oil, and gas, coupled with stronger investments in renewable energy and stricter emissions regulations. The message from researchers is clear: progress is happening, but far too slowly. Without urgent, coordinated global action, the world risks breaching safe climate limits — triggering irreversible consequences for ecosystems, economies, and human life.