The West Asian war remains at a standstill as at the time of writing this. And the likelihood of an immediate outbreak seems remote. Even as it is clear that US President Donald Trump has no interest in continuing the war, the two-week ceasefire announced as a first step to ending it was extended just before it expired on Wednesday. The initial US position was that the duration of the ceasefire would depend on Iran's response. It also said that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would continue and that the sanctions would be lifted only if Iran agreed to a ceasefire and lifted the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The US President has since said that there is no time limit for the ceasefire and that it will lift the blockade as soon as Iran lifts it. Trump, who has been repeatedly shifting his goals and demands in the war since the beginning, has now come to a stage where his initially announced goal of regime change in Tehran is no longer heard. The reason for the war situation not changing is that Iran is not giving in to the US demands for a change in its position. The US points to the uncertainty in the Iranian leadership as the reason for this. However, Iran's chief spokesman and former speaker Mohammad Baqir Ghalibaf says that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be opened without an end to the ceasefire violations by the US and Israel. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also has echoed this as the main obstacle to the talks.
At the same time, none of Trump's claims about Iran's depleting military power can be taken at face value. The US came up with counter-blockade when it turned out that there was no military solution to open the Strait of Hormuz. It became clear from the US shift that its assessment that Iran was begging for a settlement was also baseless. Washington came up with such explanations when it realised that the US would be held responsible for the war and the damage it caused globally. Trump and his team are talking oblivious of the fact that the major impact of the war will be on the US itself. American citizens, who hold cheap fuel is their birthright, are the first victims of it, paying a third of the price higher than before at the pump. While US oil giants are enjoying the windfall of soaring crude oil prices, the average American is the victim of high fuel prices. It is not for nothing that in a recent survey, six out of ten people disapproved of this war. The reason that they do not take to the streets is probably the hope that things will gradually return to normal with America's dominance in oil and gas production. In addition, the technological and economic gains brought about by artificial intelligence will likely be more favorable to the US. In addition, there may be hope that the appreciation of the dollar will provide better purchasing power to the average US citizen.
While each of these factors will be to the US's advantage, it will also be disadvantageous to the countries of the southern hemisphere in inverse proportion. In most of those countries, subsidies that offer relief during energy price rise are virtually non-existent. Their average per capita income is also far lower than that of the US, so they cannot afford or contain the increased energy prices. The appreciation of the dollar will also increase the cost of their imports. India, which imports 85 to 90 percent of the oil for refining, is also not immune to this crisis. Although the government is trying to create the impression that things are safe due to its petroleum and gas reserves for the time being, crises are inevitable when looking at medium and long-term needs - although it is true that Iran has given special consideration to ships destined for India to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. There can also be small relief provided by changing tax levels. But for India, which depends on Gulf sources for fertilizers and LPG, the impact from the closure of the Strait are not insignificant.
The impact will not only be felt by less wealthy Asian countries. The Chancellor of wealthy Germany, Friedrich Merz, said that the country will have to suffer the consequences of the war for a long time. There are reports that Berlin is cutting its growth forecast for 2026 to half of what it originally thought. The European Union, which relies on natural gas for 20 percent of its energy production, has already seen a 70 percent increase in gas prices. In short, the price of the war against Iran, which the United States launched without any justification or logic and with Israel as its ally, spans across the globe. Its full impact may not be felt immediately. The United States will never be absolved of the blame from the entire world for this economic quagmire.