The ongoing West Asian conflict, which poses a serious threat to global peace, has prompted our Prime Minister—who has so far not been willing to intervene in efforts to end it—to finally issue a warning to the country, albeit quite late, about the possible challenges that the war may bring. Speaking at a BJP public meeting in Secunderabad, he stated that the impact of wars unfolding across the world has also affected the country and that, in this phase of crisis, it is time to prioritise our responsibilities and make certain pledges.
Reduce the use of petrol, diesel and cooking oil; avoid unnecessary foreign travel and the purchase of gold; farmers should significantly cut down the use of chemical fertilisers; in agriculture, solar pumps should be used instead of diesel generators; public transport facilities should be used as much as possible; work-from-home practices, online meetings and video conferences, which became familiar during the Covid period, should once again be adopted; trade unions should stay away from actions that hinder the idea of ‘self-reliant India’; and domestically produced goods should be used as far as possible—these are some of the pledges that Modi has urged the people to take.
Experts had warned, right from the initial phase of the war, that the world was heading towards an energy crisis and that India would be severely affected by it. At that time, the government maintained that cylinders were being made available as required, even as people in several places had to stand in queues stretching for kilometres to obtain them. Following a sudden increase of up to one thousand rupees in the price of commercial cooking gas cylinders, food prices in restaurants rose, small traders were forced to shut down as they could not withstand the pressure, and hundreds of workers became unemployed. At the same time, steps were also initiated to remove domestic consumers from cooking gas subsidies. It is amid these realities that the Prime Minister’s announcement has come.
The gap between foreign exchange reserves and the outward flow of money from the country is currently widening compared to earlier. With crude oil prices rising frequently, this gap is expected to widen further. However, should this not have been realised and stated openly without waiting for the legislative assembly elections to conclude and for the results to be announced? When addressing the nation through national media—without even taking into account the model code of conduct during the elections—in order to express anger towards opposition parties that had collectively defeated the attempt to pass a constitutional amendment with a hidden agenda in Parliament, could this too not have been mentioned?
Work-from-home practices have become common today in office jobs and the IT sector, except in essential services. However, this is not possible for head-load workers and construction workers. The metro travel suggested by Modi is not affordable for low-income groups, even in the metropolitan cities of the country.
Another important point that can be inferred from the Prime Minister’s speech is that fertiliser prices are likely to rise and availability may decline. The central government’s flawed agricultural and trade policies, along with trade agreements burdened with excessive compliance requirements, have already pushed the agricultural sector into a severe crisis. The impact of a fertiliser shortage on farmers cannot be fully expressed at a time when the agricultural season is about to begin in a country where crops such as rice, maize, millets, groundnut, cotton and sugarcane are widely cultivated. Returning to organic farming without proper preparation is also not something that can be done easily. In Sri Lanka, when foreign exchange reserves were low, the import of fertilisers was halted in 2021 under the organic farming policy implemented by then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, which contributed to the country’s economic collapse and triggered a mass public protest movement. This should not be forgotten.
It is clear that, if the Prime Minister’s directives are examined closely, they represent an attempt to shift the entire responsibility for dealing with the global crisis onto ordinary citizens while concealing the government’s policy failures. The ruling establishment may be assuming, based on the past experiences of demonetisation and the Covid lockdown—both implemented without proper justification—that the people of India will endure even harsh measures imposed upon them. When the government asks people to make “sacrifices”, will it make any corresponding changes to corporate tax concessions or luxury schemes? Would even a slight restraint in the propaganda-driven advertising campaigns, carried out by spending thousands of crores from the tax money paid by the poor, be possible?