Syria's future amid external factors

After Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham seized power in the Syrian capital of Damascus on December 8th and former President Bashar al-Assad fled to take  asylum in Russia, speculations are on as to who will control Syria and what the role of foreign powers will be. In the first decade of the millennium, popular uprisings known as the Arab Spring took place against the regimes in West Asia and North Africa. Among them, the regimes of Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya have been overthrown, but Syria is a country that has held on through long military resistance and brutal repression. The support of Russia, Iran, and Lebanon's Hezbollah through Iran helped the Syrian regime survive. But by the beginning of this month, Russia, embroiled in a war in Ukraine, Iran, which faced challenges in confronting Israel, and Hezbollah, felt little compulsion to save Assad. According to reports, Russia and Iran rejected Syria's request for help saying that it could not help for the time being.

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The first question that arises is how much internal control is possible for HTS. Some other military forces also wield influence. The group known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) has Turkey's backing, so there is no doubt that Turkey will have a role through HTS itself. Moreover, the military advance was made in cooperation with the SNA. Also in the picture is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the paramilitary wing of the Syrian Kurds. However, the SDF's main presence has previously been as an American-backed faction defending against the Islamic State. On top of all this, the Assad family's own sect, the Alawite militia, is not something to be written off even though the Alawites make up only 15 percent of the population. America is only interested in Syria when there is a threat to Israel. HTS leader Jolani hinted that his first agenda is not to confront Israel, adding that he will not allow anyone to attack Israel from Syria.

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Julani's priority will be the reconstruction of the shattered country. Millions of citizens who left as refugees are preparing to return too.  He also has seen the history of US intervention elsewhere in the region. Peace has not been achieved in Iraq, where the US invaded and destroyed lives and property to change the regime on allegations of Iraq possessing chemical weapons. It also aided Mujahideen forces against Russia in Afghanistan. Then, after the chaos over bin Laden, the army had to be abruptly withdrawn and the reins fell into the hands of the Taliban. In Libya, which had one of the strongest regimes in Africa, everything was bombed and destroyed to free it from Gaddafi and left the country an orphan. So much for the aftermath of the American intervention.

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Despite Trump's insistence that the U.S. is not going to fix things in all other countries, CENTCOM Commander Michael Kurilla says there is no way ISIS forces will be allowed to exploit the power vacuum in Syria. But, that doesn't really matter. America's reactions are now in the tone of giving hope to Jolani, a former ISIS member who was imprisoned in Iraq and was included in the US terrorist list. There are other Western reactions that echo this stance to acknowledge the HTS. France has raised the French flag at its embassy. Although HTS is on the terror list of many European countries, the European Union embassy is going to be reopened.  UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher welcomed the changes in Syria and stressed the need to increase humanitarian aid. German diplomats also have arrived in Damascus. Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has expressed her Willingness to connect with the new leadership.

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In the midst of all this, Israel's focus is on one thing: that the new Syria should not be a threat to them in any way. To that end,  Israel launched attacks on missile storage facilities and air defence systems to further incapacitate militarily weak Syria. There are reports that the entire fleet in the Tartus region was destroyed and the attack was on a scale not seen in the last ten years. It means that the security of the United States, acting as the world’s police,  and Israel, which serves as their regional ambassador, is their first priority, and they will resist any military intervention. Moreover, Israel has deployed more troops to the demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights, which was part of Syria until the 1967 war, along Israel's border - to ensure that no one captures it amid the power vacuum of Damascus. No matter how one looks at it, the time has come to see what will happen if Syria is left alone. Syria's future depends on whether the HTS can maintain a relatively acceptable image of an ideologically motivated group and manage the state alongside other military groups.

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