In the background of the recent defections within the Trinamool Congress in Parliament, following the elections results in Kerala, Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry assemblies, political developments of the coming days demand close observation. Although assembly election results do not have a direct bearing on seats in dParliament, the resonances they have created at the national level could influence the upcoming state assembly elections. Further, and more importantly, as vacancies arise in the Rajya Sabha, the changes in the number of MLAs will consequently alter the strength of political parties in the Upper House. Currently, the Rajya Sabha consists of 245 members, comprising 232 members elected by state legislators and 13 members nominated by the President. These changes are crucial given that passing constitutional bills requires a two-thirds majority of the members present and voting in the House in addition to a similar approval by the Lok Sabha. At present, the BJP by itself holds 113 seats in the Rajya Sabha, while constituents of the NDA coalition—including parties and supporters—account for 36 seats, bringing the NDA total to 149 members. To push this tally to the required number of 163, the BJP might not have to exert too much extra effort, as and when Rajya Sabha elections across states are scheduled to take place in phases. Furthermore, in several places, the ruling party has secured more seats than it previously held.
Also read: 20 Trinamool MPs seek to join NDA, deepening party crisis
All of this becomes more relevant now because the electoral defeat suffered by the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal has pushed the party itself into a crisis. Since 59 out of the 80 elected MLAs have decided to sit as a separate block in the opposition, it is clear that the BJP ruling front will not have to face major challenges. With the Speaker, Rathindra Bose, recognising the MLA expelled by the TMC, Ritabrata Banerjee as the Opposition Leader, and given that this group expects to receive anti-defection law protection due to their number being above the stipulated two-thirds, only an emaciated TMC will remain in the Bengal Legislative Assembly henceforth. Parallel to the situation in the state assembly, signs of a dwindling Trinamool presence have begun to manifest in the Lok Sabha as well. On Monday, 20 out of the 29 members in the Lok Sabha held a meeting at the residence of Union Minister Bhupender Yadav, leading one to assume that the BJP is rolling out its customary strategies. Trinamool MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar's remarks in the media explicitly criticised the party leadership. She claimed that she left the party because nothing was functioning properly within it. Since 20 out of the total 29 members have left the party, they possess the two-thirds majority required under the anti-defection law. Given that they will henceforth favour the BJP in the House, this can well be considered a prelude to the politics of inducement that the BJP has put into practice across various states.
Also read: TMC leader Sushmita Dev resigns as Rajya Sabha MP, exits party
Reports indicate that amid these changing seat equations in the Lok Sabha, the BJP leadership is making another attempt to get MPs' endorsement for bills that previously failed to secure sufficient votes in Parliament. Mainly, the Delimitation Bills — which include clauses to increase the membership of the Lok Sabha to 850, 815 from state and 15 from union territories, and the Women's Reservation Bill, which was introduced alongside it, had previously failed due to the lack of a two-thirds majority. The ruling front might attempt to reintroduce them. However, reports suggest that this time, the ruling party's strategy is to push these bills forward separately. The NDA is still far away from the numbers required for a two-thirds majority on its own. Yet, in the altered political landscape, BJP strategists are reportedly attempting to secure the necessary majority by approaching the 'rebel' TMC MPs and even the DMK, which has been distancing itself from the INDIA bloc due to differences of opinion with the Congress. It remains to be seen how the DMK, led by M.K. Stalin and widely considered to possess an inherently anti-BJP stance, would be willing to support this. Furthermore, the DMK has strong reservations regarding the expansion of Parliament's seat strength, with their firm belief that such a move will substantially diminish the representation of South Indian states.
Also read: Abhishek Banerjee fails to secure priority High Court hearing over signature probe
Indications are that the ruling party is attempting to introduce the bills as early as the monsoon session starting in mid-July, by making minor tweaking to win over smaller parties. Looking at the current party positions, a two-thirds majority seems like a remote possibility. But those who know the BJP's track record in getting bills passed, are aware that they will employ any political maneuvre to clinching the deal. It is worth remembering that in 2019, they passed job and seat reservations for forward castes (EWS - Economically Weaker Sections) under the guise of reservation for economically backward, with the support of even those parties that opposed or were expected to have opposed it. Therefore, it must be emphasised that this is a critical juncture where the opposition must move with a robust strategy, thorough homework, and extreme political and legal vigilance regarding both the parliamentary seat numbers and the ruling alliance's clever lobbying to get the said bills passed.