The Trump White House is essaying to cobble together a semi-coherent defence for its kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro cited the Monroe Doctrine. But what is it? It is named in honour of its originator: James Monroe. The President of the United States in the 1830s he propounded the notion that the USA would oppose European countries gaining any sway over any country on the American Continent but that the United States accepted that Canada was a British colony, Guyana was a French colony, Puerto Rico and Cuba were Spanish possessions and so forth. has the right to invade other countries in the American Continent if the USA feels that the influence of countries outside the American Continent imperils the USA.
The Monroe Doctrine was accepted by the American political establishment ever since. But it has no force in international law. The USA’s invocation of this doctrine is why it seeks to be the hegemon of the Western Hemisphere. There are other reasons: hubris, jingoism and expansionism.
President Monroe is best known for the city named after him: Monrovia. It is the capital of Liberia. In the 1820s some people in the United States rightly said that the enslavement of black people was a moral outrage and must be ended forthwith. The pro-slavery caucus was affluent and well-connected. Pro-slavers attempted to deflect from the issue by asking about free black people in the United States. Africans who were set free in the USA were not granted American citizenship even if their ancestors had lived in the country for generations. The USA could not possibly allow free black people – said the pro-slavers. Otherwise, black people held in servitude would ask why they too should not have their liberty. Therefore, it was decided to establish a colony on the coast of West Africa for free black people in the USA to settle. They found a stretch of littoral not claimed by a European nation. They established a colony and called it Liberia – as in liberty. Its motto: the love of liberty brought us here. A few thousand Black people from the USA sailed there. They were often partly white and called themselves Americo-Liberians. They formed the ruling elite of the country for 150 years. There were indigenous people in Liberia whose ancestors had never been in America. The USA did not ask the native people of the country if they would agree to their land being sequestrated without compensation to form an adjunct of the USA.
There was the Roosevelt Corollary in 1904. President Theodore Roosevelt contended that the United States was entitled to invade any country in Latin America if the United States thought there was misrule. This was a staggering arrogation of illegal power. What gives the USA the right to do this? What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. If the USA has the right to do it then it must follow that other countries have the right to invade the USA if they see fit.
The Roosevelt Corollary was no idle theory. The USA invaded Cuba and Puerto Rico because they were part of Spain. The USA made Puerto Rico a territory of the United States. It is not a state. Puerto Rico has been in limbo ever since. As for Cuba: the USA recognised Cuban independence but put in the Platt Amendment to say that the United States could change the Cuban Constitution any time! That is representation without taxation.
The United States regarded the Caribbean Sea as an American lake. The USA sent troops to Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua in the early 19th century. The United States caused a rebellion in Colombia to break Panama away from Colombia. That was so it would be easier for the USA to build a canal.
The United States sponsored the Bay of Pigs Invasion in 1961. This was when Cuban anti-communists based in Florida went back to Cuba in a bid to overthrow Fidel Castro. They were thwarted. The US Air Force even launched a few bombing raids as part of this.
Venezuela has had a cordial relationship with the Russian Federation since 2002. That is when Hugo Chavez became president. Chavez was part of the anti-Western Bloc. He had a collaborative relationship with President Mahmoud Ahmedinajad of Iran, Fidel Castro of Cuba and others. In the Noughties relations between Russia and the USA were their best ever. It was only as relations between Washington DC and Moscow soured that Venezuela came to be seen as Russian asset against the USA.
Cuba is still ruled by the Communist party, but its economy is partly capitalist. Cuba is not a free country, but it is by no means the most tyrannical. Cubans have been free to leave the country for over 10 years. But that does not mean they are free to enter any country. They go to other Latin American countries and see that the upper class and middle class are much better off than in Cuba where the working class are not always better off. There are serious problems in Cuba, but no one starves, no one is homeless and everyone gets healthcare and education.
Nicaragua has been ruled by a leftist government most of the time since the Sandinista Revolution of 1979. That is why Nicaraguan Army officers still go to Russia for training. Russia abandoned communism a long time ago. But Russia still exploits nostalgia for Cold War alliances. Far from being egalitarian – Russia is one of the most unequal societies on earth. It is bandit capitalism. In the 1990s there was said to be the ‘rule of the seven bankers.’ Russia under Putin has seen huge scale redistribution of wealth: from the poor to the rich.
The US put sanctions on Venezuela years ago. The oil industry is crumbling due to underinvestment, peculation and a brain drain. The sanctions have exacerbated all these problems.
Venezuela gave oil to Nicaragua and Cuba. This was crucial in sustaining their brittle economies. The Venezuelans also sent oil to Russia to be refined and to be sold on to other countries. In some cases, Russia buys the oil and therefore has more of its own oil for export.
The United States impounded two oil tankers that were part of Russia’s shadow fleet. They were transporting oil from Venezuela to Cuba. Countries sanctioning Russia control almost 90% of the world insurance market. They refuse to sanction ships carrying Russian oil unless it is sold at under USD 60 per barrel. This is the price cap. The aim was to reduce Russia’s revenue as much as possible without causing a shortage on the world market which would lead ineluctably to a price spike.
The shadow fleet travels without insurance. These ships’ ownership is noted for its opacity. They often turn off their geolocation to make it hard to track them.
Note all ships must be registered with a country. They often fly flags of convenience – registering them in a country with which the ship has no or only a tenuous connection. Liberia and Panama are popular countries for ship registration due to the laxity of their regulations.
The US pursued a tanker. It painted a Russian Flag on the side during the chase which does not change the registration of the ship. The ship changed its registration mid voyage which is invalid.
The United Kingdom assisted the Americans in seizing another tanker. The British did not board the ship: Americans did that. US Navy planes took off from their bases in the United Kingdom. The Royal Navy provided support. London argued that the ship was stateless when seized because it had tried to change its registration during a voyage.
The American action to seize these tankers is dubious. If The US suspects they were sanctions busting or sailing without insurance what right has the US to seize the vessel when it is not in American territorial waters?
This crushes Venezuela’s already suffering economy. Who would purchase Venezuelan oil when the tanker is likely to be seized and then no oil is delivered? Cuba and Nicaragua cannot afford to buy oil at the world price. Cuba is suffering electricity blackouts because of it. This is stopping tourists from visiting.
Uncle Sam might be able to bring about regime change in Cuba and Nicaragua. Overthrowing the socialist government in Cuba has been US policy since the days of President Eisenhower. When Cuba nationalised a lot of American owned property in 1960 it refused to pay compensation. The USA would like restitution of property or asythment to be paid.
Venezuela bought over USD 10 billion of Russian military equipment in the last 10 years. The main state oil company had contracts with Russian oil companies too. Russia was glad to have a foothold in Latin America.
Maduro had Cuban bodyguards because he did not think his own military was entirely loyal or competent. Cubans are also in the Venezuelan intelligence services. There are even those who say that Venezuela is becoming a Cuban colony.
The US Delta Force raid that kidnapped Maduro and the First Lady was awe striking in its speed and efficacy. The USA was able to take down Venezuelan communications and air defence. Delta Force got in there, killed 32 Cuban bodyguards and kidnapped the two targets without suffering and fatalities. Morality and legality aside, that is impressive. Maduro and his wife could easily have been killed by a stray bullet. If he or Senora Maduro had pulled a gun to defend themselves then the Americans would have shot them. If the raid had ended with Maduro dead that would have brought even more condemnation.
Venezuela was reliant on Russian air defence and communications systems. They failed totally just as they did in Iran. This is the worst possible advertisement for the Russian military manufacturing sector.
It is notable that abducing Maduro has not changed the regime. Delcy Rodriguez has been sworn in as president. She is the first woman to lead the country. But has she put her neck in a noose? Will the Americans come for her?
Donald Trump might be cocksure of himself after what he considers a masterstroke. He might become more gung-ho. He may attempt a similar trick in Cuba or Nicaragua. But the presidents there will be on high alert.
If pro-US regimes come to power in these countries, it will undoubtedly be a feather in Trump’s cap. It will materially enfeeble Russia and other anti-Occidental powers. But it will also legitimise Russia and China in seeking regime change in other countries. If the Americans are allowed to do it then so are we: runs the argument.
Regime change in Cuba or Nicaragua might not come at all. If it does it met be bloody and anarchic. It would not necessarily be to America’s advantage. These countries could turn into failed states. It could lead to more illegal immigration into the USA: the very thing Trump vowed to stop.
As the Trump Administration has been very candid that it wants Venezuelan oil this is plainly not a moral mission. It is pecuniarily actuated. Trump has not recognised the opposition leader who won the 2024 elections as president. Trump says he will ‘run’ Venezuela until it is expeditious to hand over to an amicable regime. There is no sign that the United States is controlling Venezuela at all.
Despite Trump’s bluster, US oil majors are not keen to go back into Venezuela. It would take at least several years and tens of billions of USD to get up to peak production that they had 30 years ago. These companies will not make such a huge investment until they are sure what the situation is.
If Venezuelan oil were to come back on the market that would reduce the price enormously and lead to a global economic boom. It would severely impact Russia’s economy. 45% of the budget is from oil and gas sales.
There is a theory that Putin did not like Maduro and did not mind him falling. Nor did Putin want the Venezuelan oil industry to succeed because it would drive down the world price. He cunningly played Maduro along and gave him just enough help to keep him on side.