Brexit: from taking back control to Britain wanting back into the EU?

There is a growing body of opinion in the United Kingdom that Brexit was a grievous error badly in need of correction. The disbenefits of Brexit are tangible, and the benefits are slight. Opinion polls show that about 45% of Britons would vote to rejoin and only 27% would vote against, with the rest neutral. The neutrals would have to break heavily towards the No Camp for the No side to win a referendum.

The United Kingdom voted for Brexit by 52% in 2016. This was despite the Remain side having all the advantages: the Prime Minister and most of his Conservative Cabinet were Remainers. The Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party (SNP), trade unions, corporations, the Bank of England and universities were all against. The government refused to prepare a contingency plan in case of a No vote because they did not want the No side to seem credible. The government even wasted taxpayers’ money on Remain propaganda.

Everyone accepted that whatever the result of the referendum, Parliament would give effect to it. But when the Remain side lost, some of them openly said Parliament should go against the settled will of the people. Within days of the referendum, some were calling for a second referendum.

The country only left the European Union in 2020, after two more elections. Negotiations over a trade deal were torturous. Boris Johnson became PM, and he had been the most prominent Leaver.

The EU wanted to make an example of the United Kingdom. If Brexit proved to be a resounding success, then other rich EU states might leave. Then why would any prosperous country stay in it? Therefore, Brussels had to punish the British. But the EU dared not punish the United Kingdom too much because that would mean punishing the EU itself.

Brexit has not led to the tremendous economic growth many hoped for. Singapore on Thames has not materialised. Immigration increased after COVID due to Johnson loosening the rules. The claim that leaving the EU would lead to more funding for healthcare did not prove to be true. There is an ever more discernible sense of buyer’s remorse about Brexit.

As in all political campaigns, policies were oversold by the Brexit campaign. The main mantra was ‘take back control’. The United Kingdom does control itself more than before and has signed dozens of trade agreements with other countries that would not have been possible before Brexit. However, these do not appear to have been as advantageous as the average Briton was led to anticipate.

Those under 30 are especially anti-Brexit. They were too young to vote in 2016. Job opportunities are few in the UK, and salaries are falling. But these young Britons cannot work in the European Union without a visa, which is very hard to obtain.

The Labour Government has worked by stealth to undo Brexit. It has gradually moved into line with the EU to ease trade, it says. Some Labour MPs are openly talking about rejoining the Single Market or even the European Union itself.

The Liberal Democrats and the SNP are frank about wanting to get back into the EU. The Liberal Democrats have always been the most Europhile party in the United Kingdom. If they had had their way, the UK would have abolished the Pound Sterling (GBP) and adopted the Euro as its currency in 2002. 62% of people in Scotland voted Remain—the highest percentage in the UK.

Scotland voted in 2014 to stay in the United Kingdom. After Brexit, separatists in Scotland said that they needed another referendum on leaving the UK. Scotland voted to stay in the UK when it was in the EU. Scotland was taken out of the European Union against its will. The SNP calls this a denial of democracy.

In Northern Ireland, 56% voted Remain, but of course, Northern Ireland left the EU along with the rest of the UK. Nationalists were almost without exception Remainers, and so were a few unionists. Most Unionists voted Leave.

If the UK rejoined the EU, it would weaken the SNP’s case for leaving the United Kingdom. It would also undermine the nationalist case in Northern Ireland.

The Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, said that he was considering seeking re-accession to the EU. But that would be after a general election. This idea is very popular in his party. There are some who say he needs to be more audacious and call a referendum sooner. Only a few months ago, Burnham said that the Brexit decision should not be reviewed.

Germany has said that it would welcome Britain back with open arms. But there are Britons, including some former Remainers, who are dubious. The EU might only let the UK in on terrible terms. The United Kingdom might have to pay more than before, might have to agree to join the Schengen Zone, scrap the Pound Sterling and join the Euro, and lose the right to leave ever again.

There are 27 EU member countries. Under the EU treaty, even one of those could veto British membership. Cyprus could demand that Britain hand over its bases in Cyprus. Spain might insist that Britain give it Gibraltar. The Irish Republic might demand Northern Ireland.

If there is a second referendum, would it be held before or after a rejoining deal? If it is held before, the No side would say that we do not know what deal will be offered, so one must vote No. If the referendum is held after the terms of a rejoining deal have been negotiated, then the No campaign will say that the deal is disadvantageous.

There has been a tendency to scapegoat Brexit for all the failures of the past six years. Many of these are unrelated to Brexit or else related only tenuously to it. There has been incompetence, wrongheadedness and unfairness, and none of these is attributable to the United Kingdom regaining its independence.

It is probable that the United Kingdom will hold another referendum on rejoining the EU within five years. But that does not make it certain that the UK will choose to rejoin or that the European Union will readmit the country.