After the “Abraham Accord” of 2020, initiated by and signed under the auspices of America, and the increasing pace of normalization with Arab governments, Israeli officials began to act as if they called the shots in the region, and dealt with Arab officials as if they were a flock of sheep and Israelis the shepherds who decided the course. It was at this juncture that China started playing its pivotal role and notched the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia that altered their geopolitical relationships and policies.
A new phase of openness changed the approach of the warring nations. The nature of this breakthrough lies in the strategic interests of the whole region even though it may appear temporary and experimental. It makes them pursue exercises towards a future, which may transcend the region's present, solve its problems, and lead it later to establish a new regional order. The Chinese presence represents the most important change in the region. China followed quiet policies that focused on openness and economic relations with most countries in the region over the past decades, before the visit of the Chinese president to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in late 2022 which constituted a turning point. A shift in Beijing's Arab relations was evident as the visit witnessed Chinese-Saudi, Chinese-Gulf and Chinese-Arab summits. It opened vistas of deeper relations for China with Arab countries, and consequently the Saudi-Iranian agreement was presided over by Beijing.
The deal brokered by China has a huge significance within the Arab world as well as outside the region. First and foremost, the major beneficiaries of the deal are the bilateral partners. For Saudi Arabia, the deal would ensure a respite from Houthi drone attacks from across the border on the oil establishments, including that of the megalithic state entity Aramco. Riyadh has been at the receiving end for numerous attacks by Houthis since the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen in 2015. Iran’s mission to the United Nations stated that the deal would help end the Yemen war. Iran expressed its political support to the Houthis and considered it as part of the ‘axis of resistance’ against Israel.
Similarly, for Iran the deal implies greater acceptance in the region. Tehran has been reeling under the US sanctions and hence would wish for a friendly neighborhood that would be willing to develop bilateral partnerships.This is why Iran’s currency showed a gain immediately after the restoration of ties between the two neighbors despite new sanctions imposed by the US on the 39 Iranian entities on 9 March 2023. There were indications in the past of s thaw between Iran and other Gulf countries. However, the Saudi-Iran deal provided impetus to the evolving ties.
Moreover, the deal symbolizes China’s quiet diplomacy in the region and its evolution from a preferred economic partner to an emerging political ally. The deal indicates China’s emergence as a strong mediator in West Asian affairs. It has also announced that it would host the Iran-GCC summit in 2023. If the deal stands the test of time, it would be interesting to look at Beijing’s political maneuvers in the region. It would alter the role of global actors in the region.
Until now Russia was considered as the only power with potential to replace the US’ role as an external actor in the region; however, the Saudi-Iran deal brands China as an important political player. It is to be noted that the deal was announced right after Xi Jinping secured a third term as China’s President.
Obviously the Ukrainian war has given gains for the Arabs. The most prominent of them is the accelerated decline in the status and influence of the United States in the Middle East region. It has lost most of its traditional and historical allies, especially in the Arab Gulf region. The American conspiracy against Russia, and all the economic and political sanctions that resulted from it failed. The weakening of US dollar’s dominance over the global financial system due to the new Russian-Chinese alliance, proves it.
Further, there were several indications, confirming the new equations, in the political movements in the region. To state a few, the sudden visit of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the United Arab Emirates and the warm reception he received from the UAE leadership, was a severe blow to the United States and its sanctions.
Secondly, the growing rebellion against American hegemony is led by the leaderships of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Saudi Arabia’s invitation to the Chinese president to visit it officially, and its declared willingness to use the Chinese Yuan to pay oil revenues, and to take it as a benchmark for pricing a barrel of oil instead of the US dollar send a strong message to Washington.
It may be recalled that defence ministers of only four Arab countries (Morocco, Jordan, Qatar, Tunisia), out of a total of 43 countries, participated in the international conference to support Ukraine, which was organized by the United States of America. Either they sided with the Russian camp openly or covertly, or remained timidly neutral. Though very late, they realized that the United States, which was quite friendly with most Arab nations, did not form or hold a single conference to support the Arabs and their just causes, let alone arming the Palestinian Arabs to resist the Israeli occupation. Rather, what happened was exactly the opposite! In hindsight, they mobilized 33 countries to invade and occupy Iraq, and many countries to eventually destroy Syria. And more or less the same number they used to destroy Libya, change its regime, and turn it into a failed state remaining in chaos. Yemen also faced the same fate.
Today, after the agreement sponsored by Beijing, things are changing. Turkey has begun knocking on the gates of Damascus and is looking forward to reconciliation that will open a new page with Syria. This is what Syria too was longing for. Bashar al-Assad has been expecting Arab governments to follow the same suit, and some of them have started the steps by reopening embassies.
At the time of writing these lines, the Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Al-Miqdad completed his visit of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The two countries discussed the efforts to reach a comprehensive political solution to their bilateral issues, and welcomed the start of procedures for resuming consular services between the two countries. A statement by the Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its support for all efforts exerted for the return and resumption of Syria for its “active role in the Arab world” and for reaching a political solution to the crisis that “preserves the unity of the Syrian territory and the security and stability of the country.”
Brokering a breakthrough in Iran-Saudi relations, the Chinese government serves two purposes. First, it marks the dawn of the role of China as a great power and a responsible country . Second, it displays China’s ability to supersede the United States and show that the U.S. has no way to curb China’s development.
China is friendly with all countries in the region. The fundamental reason why China could finish off the job of meditating between Saudi Arabia and Iran is that China has a bigger impact on Iran than other countries. It seems that China Is looking for a Bigger Role in the Middle East. This role between Saudi and Iran advances several diplomatic priorities for Beijing.
From China’s perspective, Middle East diplomacy is moving in an increasingly positive direction. Xi Jinping tried to mediate peace talks between Palestine and Israel at least five years ago. He proposed a four-point position paper on the Palestinian-Israel issue. Beijing also held seminars at least on four occasions with some Israeli and Palestinian politicians and scholars. Contacts between China and the Arab world and Iran have also been frequent recently. Last year, Xi Jinping invited the GCC countries to hold a meeting in China. After that, Xi visited Saudi Arabia and held the first China-Arab States summit.
Therefore, viewed from a broader perspective, Xi Jinping has been gradually becoming more deeply involved in Middle East issues. Now, the relevant question is whether China is likely to play an equally vital role in reviving the Iran nuclear agreement. We know that this will be more challenging a task than mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The core of the Iranian nuclear issue is the contradiction between the United States and Iran. The current relationship between China and the U.S. is far from friendly. So, it is difficult for Beijing to function as a bridge to convey messages between the United States and Iran. Anyway, if China is willing to take the initiative on this issue, it may be more meaningful to improve the regional security and peace and the Sino-U.S.relations as well.