New Delhi: India is preparing for the impact of El Nino, with scientists warning that the current event could intensify into a very strong or "super" episode, likely to peak between late 2026 and early 2027.
Experts have cautioned that the phenomenon could lead to below-normal monsoon rainfall during July-September, increased stress in rain-fed agricultural regions, and significant pressure on the country's hydropower generation and electricity grid.
El Nino is a climate phenomenon marked by unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, disrupting weather patterns across the globe.
Scientists define an El Nino event as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific remain at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods, accompanied by weakened easterly trade winds and shifts in tropical rainfall patterns.
A "super" El Nino is an exceptionally strong event in which sea surface temperature anomalies exceed 2 degrees Celsius in the reference Niño region. Such episodes are rare but can have severe global climatic consequences. Scientists have warned that the 2026 event could rank among the strongest on record.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across the country this month, at less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for July rainfall, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is approximately 280.4 mm.
Regionally, below-normal rainfall is expected across most parts of the country, while some areas of northwest and northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The IMD has also forecast above-normal maximum temperatures across most regions this month, except a few isolated areas. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal in most parts of the country, with a few exceptions in central and northeast India.
A recent report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) warned that India's power sector could be more vulnerable to El Nino than that of any other country. According to the report, rising temperatures and weaker monsoon rainfall could place unprecedented stress on the country's electricity system.
A high-level review meeting chaired on Tuesday by Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister P.K. Mishra assessed preparedness for the kharif season and reviewed the possible impact of El Nino on key sectors of the economy.
Mishra stressed the need for continuous monitoring of the evolving El Nino situation and called for close coordination with states to assess the impact of a weak or delayed monsoon on vulnerable districts so that timely remedial measures can be implemented.
With July remaining the critical month for kharif sowing and reservoir recharge, rain-fed regions face heightened risk. States under close watch include Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, parts of Gujarat and adjoining Deccan districts, along with Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal and Odisha.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Wednesday that the government is closely monitoring the potential impact of El Nino through an extensive surveillance mechanism.
Expressing confidence that rainfall would improve during July, Chouhan said stronger precipitation would accelerate kharif sowing.
He noted that while the country recorded a 33 per cent rainfall deficit in June, the overall deficit has narrowed to 24 per cent in July.
Several regions have received good rainfall in recent days, reducing the number of rainfall-deficient districts from 262 to 178, he added.
Experts also warned that reduced rainfall and weaker winds could lower hydropower and wind energy generation, while rising temperatures would increase electricity demand because of greater cooling requirements.
Chouhan said district-level contingency plans should be activated based on local conditions, including water availability, crop patterns, seed stocks, sowing progress, rainfall intervals and other region-specific risks.
Late last month, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) began issuing specialised El Nino bulletins outlining the likely impact on maritime sectors.
According to INCOIS, the El Nino event is expected to peak between November 2026 and January 2027, with sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean likely to remain above normal until April-May 2027.
The agency warned that the marine ecosystem in the northern Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, is likely to experience significant thermal stress, particularly between March and May 2027.
Such conditions could trigger increased coral bleaching, more frequent marine heatwaves and reduced catches of commercially important fish species such as sardine and mackerel because of migration and lower recruitment.
INCOIS also warned that the Bay of Bengal is likely to remain rough during the monsoon season, increasing the risk of coastal erosion and flooding along India's east coast.
With IANS inputs