New Delhi: India is projected to witness above-average monsoon rains in 2024, providing significant relief to the nation heavily reliant on these seasonal rains for its agricultural output.
The announcement was made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on April 15.
M Ravichandran, the secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, revealed that the monsoon is expected to deliver rainfall equivalent to 106% of the long-term average. The monsoon typically begins over the southernmost part of Kerala around June 1 and concludes by mid-September each year.
The IMD classifies rainfall between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average, which stands at 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season, as normal. Thus, the projected 106% rainfall this year indicates an above-normal monsoon.
"La Nina conditions, associated with good Monsoon in India, are likely to set in by August-September," stated IMD.
Historical data from 1951 to 2023 reveals that India witnessed above-normal monsoon rainfall in nine instances following La Nina events post-El Nino, as highlighted by IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
While most regions of the country are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, some areas in the northwest, east, and northeastern states might experience deviations, the IMD indicated.
Highlighting the factors contributing to the favourable monsoon forecast, Mohapatra mentioned, "Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season. Also, the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is low, which favours the Indian southwest monsoon."
Currently, moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing. However, it is anticipated to become neutral as the monsoon season begins. Models suggest the onset of La Nina conditions by August-September. India had experienced below-average rainfall of 820 mm in 2023, categorized as an El Nino year, compared to the long-term average of 868.6 mm. Prior to 2023, the country had witnessed normal to above-normal rainfall for four consecutive years.
El Nino, characterized by periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, leads to weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. For forecasting monsoon rainfall, three major climatic phenomena are considered: El Nino, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) caused by differential warming of the western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, and the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and Eurasian landmass.
The southwest monsoon contributes about 70% of India's annual rainfall, playing a critical role in the agricultural sector, which accounts for approximately 14% of the country's GDP.