India’s exports to the United States dropped sharply between May and October 2025 after a rapid escalation in American tariff rates, according to a report released on Saturday by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
The think tank said shipments to the US fell 28.5%, sliding from $8.83 billion in May to $6.31 billion in October.
The decline came as US tariffs rose steeply over a short period. Duties began at 10% on April 2, increased to 25% on August 7, and then jumped to 50% by the end of August. GTRI noted that this made Indian goods some of the most heavily taxed among US trading partners. By comparison, China faced tariffs of around 30%, while Japan dealt with only 15%.
The report found that tariff-exempt goods made up 40.3% of India’s exports to the US in October. These items included smartphones, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. Despite being exempt, their combined exports still declined 25.8%, falling from $3.42 billion in May to $2.54 billion in October — a drop of $881 million.
Products that were subject to uniform global tariffs, such as iron, steel, aluminium, copper, and auto parts, accounted for 7.6% of shipments in October. Exports in this segment fell 23.8%, dropping from $629 million in May to $480 million in October — a fall of about $149 million.
The steepest fall came in labour-intensive categories where India alone faced 50% tariffs. These goods made up 52.1% of exports in October. Shipments plunged 31.2%, shrinking from $4.78 billion to $3.29 billion — nearly $1.5 billion wiped out in five months.
GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said, "Smartphones, India's single biggest product line to the US, suffered a 36 per cent decline, sliding from $2.29 billion in May to $1.50 billion in October — a loss of almost $790 million."
He added that monthly exports fell steadily. They dropped from $2 billion in June to $1.52 billion in July, plunged to $964.8 million in August, fell further to $884.6 million in September, and then recovered to $1.5 billion in October.
Pharmaceutical exports dipped 1.6%, moving from $745.6 million to $733.6 million. Petroleum product shipments also dropped 15.5%, sliding from $291 million in May to $246 million in October.
Labour-intensive sectors such as gems and jewellery, textiles, garments, chemicals, and seafood also recorded declines. Chemical exports saw one of the sharpest drops, falling 38% from $537 million to $333 million.
A senior official said India and the US were optimistic about reaching an agreement to address tariff-related issues by the end of the year.