India must brace for the possibility of another Covid-19 outbreak, a leading expert warned on Friday, as several countries, including the United States and South Korea, report a surge in infections.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that Covid-19 cases are rising in 25 states, while South Korea is experiencing a significant outbreak with a notable increase in hospitalizations.
The World Health Organization's (WHO) latest update, covering the period from June 24 to July 21, revealed that an average of 17,358 Covid-19 samples were tested weekly for SARS-CoV-2 across 85 countries. During this same period, India reported 908 new Covid-19 cases and two deaths, according to WHO data.
Although India is not currently facing the same severity as other nations, preparedness is essential, emphasized Professor Deepak Sehgal, a virologist at Shiv Nadar University in Noida. "The virus has reemerged, and the WHO has reported a 26% increase in Covid-related deaths and an 11% rise in occurrences globally. This is quite concerning," Sehgal told IANS.
The recent spike in cases is attributed to KP variants, part of the Omicron lineage. Known for its high transmissibility and immune evasion, Omicron first emerged globally in January 2022, with its descendant, KP.2, identified in Odisha, India, in December 2023.
According to Sehgal, KP strains are derivatives of the Omicron variant, featuring three mutations in the spike protein region. Data from INSACOG (Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium) indicates that these variants are already circulating in India. By the last week of July, KP.x variants, including KP.3.1.1 and its relatives such as the FLiRT variant or KP.2, accounted for nearly 39% of all Covid-19 sequence samples in the country.
The Union Health Ministry's Covid-19 dashboard shows an uptick in active cases across several Indian states, including Assam, New Delhi, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, with 279 active cases reported.
The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) have identified the highly transmissible KP.1 and KP.2 strains, evolved from the JN.1 Omicron variant, as the primary drivers of the recent surge in Covid-19 cases in India. However, Union Health Minister J.P. Nadda informed Parliament in July that there has been no significant increase in hospitalizations or severity of illness thus far.
Professor Sehgal noted that the government has intensified surveillance, particularly through genome sequencing, and is working to ensure the availability of vaccines and booster doses for the population. "Administering a booster dose could be highly beneficial. Without it, we face numerous risks that must be mitigated in the future," he added.