Jefferies has initiated coverage on Adani Power Ltd. with a ‘buy’ rating and set a target price of ₹690, pointing to multiple growth drivers and a stable financial position.
The brokerage expects the company to see significant capacity expansion supported by timely equipment delivery and efficient project execution.
Jefferies noted that Adani Power's growth is backed by a strong pipeline of new projects and a strategic shift toward long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), which help reduce earnings volatility.
Recent developments, including a substantial payment from Bangladesh, have further strengthened investor confidence in the company’s cash flow position.
A key highlight from Jefferies’ analysis is Adani Power’s goal to double its EBITDA by FY2030.
The company plans to grow its generation capacity from 23 GW (FY23-25) to 30 GW by FY30, with 11.2 GW of capacity already under order at competitive rates. Over 3 GW of this new capacity is expected to become operational by the first half of FY28, thanks to accelerated execution and smooth coordination with Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.
On the international front, the $384 million payment received from Bangladesh in June 2025 was a key milestone, addressing long-standing concerns over delayed dues. This payment, covering 9% of Adani Power’s capacity, helped bring down the company’s receivables from Bangladesh to $500 million.
Jefferies noted that although the political situation in Bangladesh caused earlier delays, the recent payment signals improved financial reliability going forward. For FY25, Adani Power's overall receivable cycle stood at 83 days, and 55 days excluding Bangladesh.
Jefferies also highlighted that Adani Power is steadily reducing its exposure to merchant capacity, which is projected to drop to 10–12% over the next five years, down from 18% in FY25. With more capacity backed by PPAs, earnings are expected to stabilise, and the company’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is forecast to improve from 0.7x to 0.6x by FY30 due to stronger operational cash flow.