Despite the Central government’s claim of an unexpected surge in India’s GDP growth rate to a six-quarter high of 8.2 per cent in July-September from 7.8 per cent in April-June, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday kept the C-grade for national account statistics, or GDP data, on the basis of inadequate access to data that could amount to a hurdle for surveillance.
The IMF’s assessment was released as part of its annual Article IV consultations, during which an expert staff team visits member countries, gathers economic and financial information, and formulates a detailed evaluation of domestic indicators and the latest report reiterated the need for improved quality, availability, and timeliness of key macroeconomic datasets, even as headline growth numbers exceeded expectations.
The IMF maintained that India’s national accounts still suffer from shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance, while other statistical domains, such as prices, government finance, the external sector, and monetary and financial statistics, continued to receive B-level assessments, which collectively produced an overall rating of B, according to The Indian Express.
The retention of these grades followed the four-tier evaluation framework introduced in 2024, and the assessment suggested that deficiencies in statistical coverage and granularity remain unresolved despite India’s repeated assurances of ongoing improvements.
The Fund’s concerns carried added weight because economists had broadly anticipated a moderation in second-quarter growth to around 7.3 per cent, and the sharp upside surprise renewed long-standing questions about what the topline GDP figures actually capture and how underlying data distortions could influence policy conclusions.
The IMF’s scrutiny comes against a backdrop of earlier observations which had marked India’s statistical system as broadly adequate until 2023, though persistent weaknesses had been highlighted, including the outdated base year of the current GDP series and the continued use of the Wholesale Price Index rather than the more internationally aligned Producer Price Index for deflating several economic activities.
The agency had previously noted that the 2011-12 base year was increasingly misaligned with structural changes in the economy, and analysts recalled how the last major revision in 2015 had generated significant analytical difficulties due to discrepancies and the relatively limited historical span of the updated series.
India’s statistical authorities, however, are preparing a significant overhaul, as a new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year is scheduled for release on 27 February 2026, along with the second advance estimate for 2025-26, while updated CPI inflation data based on the 2023-24 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey will be published earlier in the same month.