New Delhi: India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy with a gross domestic product of USD 4.18 trillion and is on track to surpass Germany to claim the third position by 2030, the government said on Monday.
With sustained strong growth, India also remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The country’s real GDP expanded by 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2025–26, accelerating from 7.8 per cent in the first quarter and 7.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of the previous financial year.
“With GDP valued at USD 4.18 trillion, India has surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy and is poised to displace Germany from the third rank in the next 2.5 to 3 years, with a projected GDP of USD 7.3 trillion by 2030,” the government said in a release outlining key reforms and economic indicators for 2025.
The United States continues to be the world’s largest economy, followed by China in second place.
The release noted that growth momentum exceeded expectations, with GDP touching a six-quarter high in the second quarter of 2025–26, reflecting India’s resilience despite persistent global trade uncertainties. Strong domestic drivers, particularly robust private consumption, were identified as central to sustaining the expansion.
International agencies have echoed this optimism, the government said, citing multiple projections. The World Bank has forecast growth of 6.5 per cent in 2026, while Moody’s expects India to remain the fastest-growing G20 economy, with growth of 6.4 per cent in 2026 and 6.5 per cent in 2027.
The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth projections to 6.6 per cent for 2025 and 6.2 per cent for 2026, while the OECD forecasts growth of 6.7 per cent in 2025 and 6.2 per cent in 2026. S&P anticipates growth of 6.5 per cent in the current financial year and 6.7 per cent in the next, the Asian Development Bank has increased its 2025 projection to 7.2 per cent, and Fitch has raised its FY26 forecast to 7.4 per cent, citing stronger consumer demand.
“India is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies and is well positioned to sustain this momentum. With the ambition of attaining high middle-income status by 2047—the centenary year of its independence—the country is building on strong foundations of economic growth, structural reforms, and social progress,” the release said.
The government also highlighted that inflation remains below the lower tolerance threshold, unemployment is on a declining path, and export performance continues to improve. Financial conditions remain benign, with strong credit flows to the commercial sector, while demand conditions have stayed firm, supported by strengthening urban consumption.
With PTI inputs