The Gujarat Rajya Sabha elections demonstrated the actual state of Indian politics – where the BJP will stoop to any level to bulldoze values and institutions of democracy facilitated by an extremely inept and inefficient Congress – while all other possible contenders to power are either bullied or cajoled into hapless silence as onlookers to this bizarre drama.
As many people are celebrating Ahmed Patel’s close-call re-election with obvious relief, I see the moment as a rather bad defeat for Congress and a victory for the BJP. In the first place people seem to be forgetting that this was an election that the Congress should have won comfortably on its own. The warning bells should have rung when the first signs of rebellion happened as 8 Congress MLAs cross voted in the Presidential elections. Shankersinh Vaghela quitting the Congress immediately thereafter should have upped the antennae further about an impending strike against Congress.
It looks like the Congress did not heed to the warning signs and was lax in responding. They allowed their legislators to be poached at this crucial moment instead of strategizing on holding on to them. They should have seen the writing on the wall – given that they introduced poaching into Indian politics and Shankersinh Vagela himself was a partner in Congress poaching around two decades back. Rumour has it that it was no loyalty to Vaghela that got the Congress MLAs to quit their seats in the assembly – but it was hard cash and one Rajya Sabha seat in return for Ahmed Patel’s necl!
Then the BJP stooped lower than what the Congress could imagine. They unleashed the Income Tax department in one hand into the resort where the Congress legislators were hoarded. While on the other they started intimidating the few non Congress and non BJP MLAs. Gossip has it that at least one NCP MLA was bullied into voting against Patel with the threat of accelerating prosecution against him in the several cases against him.
The election day arrived tense with rumors abound that even among the MLAs who were still with the Congress – there were bound to be dissenting votes. As the votes were cast – and people like Vaghela making announcements that he had voted against Patel as he won’t vote for a loser – seemed to be a signal as to which way the electoral wind was blowing. For a moment everyone was under the impression that Amit Shah had staged another coup – regardless of the means that was used. Fortunately for the Congress the voting irregularity happened – reducing the number of votes that Patel needed to 44 – and he got that after a gut wrenching battle at the election commission which went on late night. All of that is already in the popular lore and I would not want to revisit the incidents.
Meanwhile what many read as a defeat for the BJP might actually be a victory on many fronts – the reason why the BJP is unfazed. Let me try and list them.
Firstly – in light of the upcoming Gujarat assembly elections later this year – the Congress has been exposed as a divided house that isn’t able to manage its own internal affairs. It will put a lot of brakes on the Congress ability to cash in on the widespread discontent with the state and central governments and anti-incumbency.
Second – the Congress alliance partners are in disarray and it is very unsure whether the existing alliance partners of the Congress will continue with the alliance
Beyond all of this – the Gujarat election has reinforced how deeply the BJP has entrenched itself into the psyche of the media and a section of polity as being synonymous with the idea of India – in many ways reinventing the old coinage of Indira is India and India is Indira in favour of Modi. As the legislators walked out of the assembly, a young television reporter asked the JD(U) MLA, Vasava Chhotubhai Amarsinh whom he had voted for. The legislator responded that he had voted for the nation. The reporter immediately turned to the camera and announced that Vasava had voted BJP!
The ability of the RSS to convert adversity into victory is astonishing. As RSS has shifted focus from BJP misdeeds in the run up to Gujarat Rajya Sabha elections and the failure of its conspiracy to subvert democracy and has claimed credit for the "fairness" of the election commission decision to Modi's commitment to institutions of democracy and Amit Shah has already started the war cry, Congress seems satisfied to rest on having won a battle by default and seemingly losing sight of the larger war at hand!