Over 85% of Indian districts vulnerable to extreme climate events: study
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A new study by IPE Global and Esri India has revealed that more than 85% of districts in India are exposed to extreme climate events, including floods, droughts, and cyclones.
The research also highlights a concerning trend in 45% of districts, where regions traditionally prone to flooding are now experiencing droughts, and vice versa.
The study, based on a 50-year analysis from 1973 to 2023, utilized spatial and temporal modeling to catalog extreme climate events. The findings show that the frequency of such events has surged in recent years, with a five-fold increase in climate extremes over the past decade alone. Extreme flood events have risen fourfold, with eastern India being particularly vulnerable, followed by northeastern and southern regions.
The study also indicates a doubling of drought events, particularly in agriculture and meteorology, as well as a fourfold increase in cyclones. Notably, more than 60% of districts in states such as Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and others have faced multiple extreme climate events.
Abinash Mohanty, the head of climate change and sustainability practice at IPE Global and lead author of the study, explained that the rise in climate extremes can be attributed to a 0.6-degree Celsius temperature increase over the last century. Mohanty warned that, by 2036, over 1.47 billion Indians will be highly vulnerable to such events.
A significant finding of the study is the "swapping" trend, where some districts that were once flood-prone are now becoming drought-prone, while others are experiencing the reverse. Regions such as Tripura, Kerala, Bihar, Punjab, and Jharkhand are seeing the most pronounced shifts.
To address these challenges, the study recommends the establishment of a Climate Risk Observatory to aid policymakers in making risk-informed decisions. It also advocates for the creation of an Infrastructure Climate Fund to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure and promote local climate actions.
Ashwajit Singh, founder and managing director of IPE Global, emphasized the need for India to shift its budget priorities from mitigation to adaptation, noting that climate impacts led to an 8% GDP loss in 2022. Agendra Kumar, managing director of Esri India, called for a data-driven approach to inform climate policy, citing the increasing frequency of heatwaves and intense rainfall events, which are causing widespread disruption to lives and infrastructure.
