India’s power demand outpaces Centre’s forecast amid heat, poor rains

New Delhi: India’s actual electricity demand between April and August exceeded the Centre’s projections by 3.3%, with deficient rainfall and high temperatures driving consumption beyond expectations, according to official data.

Electricity consumption typically remains below the short-term forecasts issued by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). Post-Covid, deviations were recorded at 1.8% in 2022 and 0.75% in 2023. This year’s higher-than-anticipated demand has created challenges for power system planning, coal supplies, and generation strategies, which are largely based on CEA projections.

With demand rising sharply, the Union Ministry of Power has initiated measures to ensure adequate electricity availability. As part of the response, 112 privately owned coal-based power plants have been directed to operate at maximum capacity from October 1 to December 31.

Poor rainfall has also dealt a major blow to hydropower generation, which plays a key role in meeting peak evening demand. Hydroelectric output fell by nearly 11%, declining from 84,767.77 million units during April-August last year to 75,304.58 million units this year.

The decline was linked to low reservoir levels, which fell to their lowest point since 2023 due to El Niño. As hydropower generation weakened, India increasingly relied on coal-fired plants to meet electricity demand.

Coal-based generation rose 10% year-on-year during the April-August period to 579,869.38 million units, the highest level recorded in three years. The increased dependence on coal, however, sharply depleted stocks. Coal reserves stood at 55 million tonnes at the beginning of April but had fallen to 18.6 million tonnes by September 30, putting additional pressure on the power sector.