The Financial Times published a story in January 2025 stating that documents prove that in 2013 Russia prepared to invade Japan and South Korea.
The Financial Times (FT), as its name suggests, focuses on business and economics. It includes some political and diplomatic reportage and commentary where this impinges on business and economics. It is a sober and even dull publication not given to excitability or sensationalism. It stakes its reputation on accuracy.
The Russian Federation formulated a precise plan to strike the Republic of Korea and Japan. 160 targets were identified. Some were military bases but there were plenty of civilian targets including nuclear power stations.
Back in 2013, Ukraine was ruled by President Viktor Yanukovych. He was a Russian speaker from east Ukraine. He was pro-Moscow and opposed Ukraine joining NATO or the EU.
In 2013, Russia thought it had Ukraine more or less under control. Therefore, it could pay more attention to the Far East.
Perhaps this was just a contingency plan in case a war against these nations broke out. The United States draws up such plans not because it intends to attack countries, but it prepares for the eventuality that such a war occurs.
In 2013, Barack Obama was President of the United States. President Obama had announced the ‘Pacific pivot’. The US would care less about the defence of Europe and more about that of the Far East. It could be that Russia believes that the United States might initiate a war against Russia. Therefore, the Russians were achieving preparedness by drawing up the plan.
The Russian plan stated that the military strikes were intended to prevent enemy troops from massing.
The US has had troops in Japan since 1945. They have been stationed in South Korea since 1950. These are both formal military allies of the United States.
In 1945, the Soviet Union seized the southern half of Sakhalin Island from Japan and the Kurile Islands. Japan calls these islands the Northern Territories. Japan does not recognise this as Russian sovereign soil and still claims the islands.
Japan and Russia have never formally signed a peace treaty relating to the Second World War. That is because of the territorial dispute.
In the 1990s and the 2000s, Russia courted Japan. This was because Russia desperately needed investment and a market for its hydrocarbons. China was not so prosperous then. Nor were relations between Moscow and Beijing at the height of cordiality as they are now.
North Korea was a satrapy of the Soviet Union. The USSR armed North Korea and egged it on to invade South Korea in 1950. This was supposedly a proxy war. In fact, the Soviet Air Force flew combat missions against the US Air Force in that war because the North Koreans had so few pilots. The USSR strove to keep it a secret that its air force had fought directly against the Americans. Had that been known it might have triggered a Third World War.
Moreover, the Buryats (an indigenous minority from the Soviet Far East) fought in the war. It was pretended that they were North Koreans. Because of their phenotype, this was believable. Ironically in the Ukraine War, the Russians are now passing off North Koreans as Buryats.
North Korea is at daggers drawn with South Korea. Pyongyang says that South Korea is occupied by the United States and that the Republic of Korea is an American marionette.
Russia used to court South Korea assiduously due to economic considerations. But because of the Ukraine War, the Russians now shun South Korea. They need North Korean shells and troops.
In a war against South Korea, the Russians would be assured of North Korean allyship. Korea borders only Russia as well as China. Russia is North Korea’s only significant trade partner other than China.
The FT claimed to have received the secret documents from unnamed intelligence sources. The lack of transparency will cast doubt on the veracity of the documents.
Russia has been unable to conquer Ukraine after almost 3 years of war. Bear in mind that Russia has a 10:1 advantage in almost all assets over Ukraine. In fighter jets, helicopters, howitzers, tanks, armoured personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, missiles etc… the Russian numerical advantage is enormous. Admittedly Russia could not bring all that to bear against Ukraine. Russia has frontiers to guard. Moreover, logistical constraints made it impossible to transport all those assets to the warzone.
As Russia cannot defeat Ukraine, how on earth could it defeat South Korea, Japan and the USA? These are highly developed countries with state-of-the-art military technology. US military technology is at least a generation ahead of its Russian equivalents.