Sudan is grappling with a profound humanitarian disaster amid an 18-month-long civil war that has claimed over 62,000 lives, with the actual toll likely far higher.
The war's death toll includes both direct casualties from violence and indirect deaths from factors exacerbated by the conflict, such as a collapsing healthcare system, malnutrition, and the spread of diseases.
According to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project, approximately 1,200 people die each month directly due to the conflict, with nearly 19,000 such deaths recorded over the first 15 months. When applying historical multipliers for indirect deaths, researchers estimate that over 43,500 additional fatalities have occurred, bringing the total to a conservative estimate of 62,000 deaths.
However, using broader multipliers for indirect mortality, such as those used in similar conflicts, the total death toll could range between 110,000 and 130,000.
This conflict, marked by ethnic cleansing, mass displacement, disease outbreaks, and food scarcity, has plunged the nation into one of the world's deadliest crises, even as global attention remains fixed on other high-profile wars.
The conflict erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), former allies in a military-led government. Since then, over 14 million people have been displaced, while the country has been divided along geographic and ideological lines.
Sudan’s already fragile healthcare system has been decimated by the conflict. Attacks on healthcare facilities have left nearly 80% of them inoperable, with over 58 medical workers killed. Critical shortages of medicine, food, and clean water have exacerbated the crisis, and humanitarian aid has been blocked in many regions.
The Darfur region, particularly hard-hit, faces full-scale famine, with thousands of children at risk. Doctors Without Borders reports that 13 children die daily in the Zamzam refugee camp in North Darfur, primarily from starvation and malnutrition. Nearly 800,000 children are projected to face severe malnutrition in 2024.
The displacement of millions, coupled with unhygienic living conditions in overcrowded camps, has also spurred disease outbreaks. A cholera epidemic in August highlighted the dire conditions, with a death rate of over 31 per 1,000 cases.
Estimating the true impact of Sudan's conflict is fraught with challenges. The displacement of millions complicates population tracking, and official data is sparse due to the ongoing violence.