OPEC+ keeps November oil output targets unchanged as Middle East war tightens supply
London/Moscow: OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to keep oil production targets steady for November, with seven core members of the cartel deciding against any change to output quotas amid ongoing disruptions to Middle East exports and crude prices hovering above $100 a barrel.
The decision was taken by a sub-group of seven key producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — during a brief online meeting, in line with market expectations that the alliance would hold policy steady until next year. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which oversees compliance, also met and reiterated concern over attacks on energy infrastructure and threats to international shipping routes.
Oil prices fell on Friday after Group of Seven nations agreed to US President Donald Trump’s request to release diesel reserves, but benchmark Brent crude has since moved back above the $100-a-barrel mark, up from about $73 before the Iran war began in late February. Despite the G7 move, the market remains tight as conflict-related export disruptions continue to constrain actual supply from the Gulf.
OPEC+ has been raising output targets for much of 2026 after years of production cuts, but most of those increases have stayed on paper because of the Middle East conflict. Gulf producers have been pumping well below their quotas, with exports fluctuating at roughly 60–80 per cent of normal levels in recent months due to war-related disruptions.
The seven core members produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July but still roughly 5 million bpd below pre-war levels in February, OPEC data show. Around 2 million bpd of output cuts remain in place for most members, and any further changes to quotas are unlikely before 2027 pending the outcome of a delayed capacity review.
The Iran war has also postponed the group’s output capacity review, which is crucial for setting 2027 quotas, as estimates of future production potential remain uncertain. The seven-nation sub-group will meet again on November 1, while the full ministerial meeting to settle policy for next year is scheduled for November 29.
Higher official quotas do not automatically translate into more oil reaching global buyers. Russia’s production is running at around 9 million bpd, below its OPEC+ target of about 9.8 million bpd, after repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure. The UAE’s exit from OPEC+ in May, following years of frustration over production cuts, has added another layer of uncertainty about the durability of coordinated limits.
At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 per cent of global oil and gas exports pass, has seen its flows repeatedly disrupted by the conflict, while Houthi control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast has further complicated tanker movements via the Suez Canal route.
(Inputs from IANS)