French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Francois Bayrou as his fourth prime minister in 2024, entrusting the veteran centrist with navigating the challenges of a fractious parliament.
However, the scale of the task was evident as the Socialist Party declined to join the coalition government, signaling a rocky road ahead.
Bayrou, 73, acknowledged the difficulty of his role, stating, "It is a long road, everyone knows that. I am not the first to take a long road." His appointment follows the ousting of former Prime Minister Michel Barnier last week, underscoring the instability within Macron's administration.
France’s ongoing political gridlock has raised questions about Macron’s ability to complete his term, which runs until 2027. The turmoil has also increased the country’s borrowing costs and left a leadership void in Europe amid global uncertainties, including Donald Trump’s return to the White House and upcoming elections in Germany.
Bayrou, the founder of the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party and a long-time ally of Macron, faces an immediate challenge: securing parliamentary approval for a law to roll over the 2024 budget. A more contentious battle looms early next year over the austerity-driven 2025 budget, which seeks €60 billion in savings to address France's 6% deficit. The backlash to this legislation led to Barnier’s removal, and opposition leaders have already signaled they may challenge Bayrou if he bypasses parliamentary approval using special constitutional power, reported Reuters.
The Socialist Party criticized Bayrou’s appointment, accusing Macron of ignoring calls for a leftist leader. "We will not join the government and will remain in opposition," stated Boris Vallaud, the Socialists’ parliamentary leader. Other left-wing factions, such as the Greens and Communists, expressed conditional opposition, warning of no-confidence motions if their concerns over taxes and pensions are ignored.
Far-left France Unbowed leaders have called for Bayrou’s immediate removal, while far-right National Rally (RN) figures, including Marine Le Pen, urged the prime minister to collaborate with opposition parties on budgetary issues.
While some analysts, like Kathleen Brooks from XTB Research, downplayed the immediate impact of Bayrou’s appointment on French bonds, the political turmoil has left France’s CAC 40 stock index significantly underperforming its German counterpart.
Bayrou’s previous tenure as justice minister in 2017 ended amid allegations of fraudulent employment practices within his party. Although he was acquitted earlier this year, his past may add to his challenges in uniting a deeply divided parliament.
Bayrou’s success hinges on his ability to stave off no-confidence votes and pass critical budgetary legislation. Macron hopes to maintain stability until July, when new parliamentary elections could potentially reshape the political landscape. For now, Bayrou faces the daunting task of reconciling a polarized parliament while addressing France’s economic and political uncertainties.