On December 16 Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence in the German Parliament. The Social Democrat announced that an early election shall be held in 2025.
Chancellor Scholz wanted the vote of confidence to be held even though he knew it would result in a no-confidence vote. He did this to trigger an early election. He was gambling that his party might win. But it looks unlikely.
Scholz came to office in 2021. He was the first Social Democrat to lead the German Government since Gerhard Schroder in 2005. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) won the election only narrowly. They were obliged to form a coalition so that the government had a majority. The SPD coalesced with the Free Democrats and the Greens. Ecology has always mattered in Germany. That is why Deutschland has made such progress with renewable energy, and cycle lanes and has phased out nuclear energy.
In 2024 the SPD and the Greens wanted to loosen Germany’s strict fiscal rules. This would allow more spending on various projects. Their coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP) refused. They said that fiscal belt-tightening was the only way forward. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) withdrew from the coalition. That meant that the government lost its majority. But it limped on.
The SPD is weakened by the fact that there is a neo-communist breakaway called Die Linke (‘’the Left’’). Die Linke attracted extremists who had previously voted for the SPD.
Scholz is an affable, undersized, bald lawyer. He has never been very popular. His relaxed style was a breath of fresh air compared to his predecessor Angela Merkel. Frau Merkel was notoriously lacking in personability and small talk. She is a very serious-minded scientist.
The SPD-led government faced significant headwinds. There was an economic slowdown. The Ukraine War meant that the government had to increase defence spending. This left less money for more popular areas of spending. The Greens are very dovish. The left of the SPD was also unhappy about the hike in defence spending. Germany also donated liberally to Ukraine: both arms and money.
Germany has taken in millions of refugees since 2015. Some are Syrians and people from other conflict zones such as Afghanistan. Since 2022 hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have arrived. This has been very costly for Germany. Some people welcomed the refugees. Germany has a very low fertility rate. Refugees are not supposed to be immigrants. The idea is that they do not stay permanently. But they often turn into immigrants. The admission of huge numbers of refugees began under the government headed by a party called the Christian Democratic Union. Angela Merkel was then Chancellor of Germany.
There has been a backlash against admitting millions of refugees. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) was founded largely as a protest against this. They said that too many had been allowed in and it was ruining the country. Many of the refugees were Muslims. There was considerable Islamophobic rhetoric from other groups such as Pegida (Patriotic Europeans against the Islamisation for Europe).
AfD is on 20% in the opinion polls. It is reflective of how disaffected many people are from the main parties. Since 1945 Germany has been a duopoly between the CDU and the SPD. No government was ever formed without one of those parties.
The main opposition party is the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The CDU was highly effective in holding the government to account. In Bavaria, the CDU is known as the Christian Social Union (CSU). Bavaria is a state with a very pronounced sense of identity. It likes to do everything a little differently.
There may well be an early election in 2025. It looks like the CDU will win. However, it is improbable that the CDU will be big enough to form a government alone. They shall probably be compelled to form a coalition with other parties. All parties refuse to work with Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD). AfD is castigated as racist.
Friedrich Merz leads the CDU. He is probably going to be made Chancellor in February 2025 if as expected his party wins the election. The trouble is that the CDU will almost certainly fail to get a majority in the Bundestag. Therefore, it will need to form a coalition. It will need coalition partners. These could be the FDP and even the SPD. Many in the CDU do not want to collaborate with the Greens whom they perceive as monomaniacs. Because the CDU has excluded the possibility of cooperating with AfD it gives the CDU very few options.
The SPD was circumspect in the arms it gave to Ukraine. Berlin refused to give Taurus missiles to the Ukrainians. The SPD was a cause between those on one side who argued against all military aid to Ukraine and those who demanded more military aid to Ukraine.
Because of the Second World War, Germany had a terrible reputation in Europe. They were seen as hyper-aggressive and cruel. Since 1945 Germany has striven to prove it is peace-loving. There are Germans who say that 79 years after the war surely it is time to move on. Germany must be allowed to formulate policies based on today’s world. Increasing defence spending is not necessarily war-mongering. Helping a democracy defend itself from a totalitarian regime is the polar opposite of fascism.
The crypto-fascists and the communists in Germany are both sympathetic to the Putin regime. They were wont to excuse his invasion of Ukraine. The political middle ground tended to support military aid to Ukraine.
The President of Germany is Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Note well that the president is elected by the Parliament and the legislatures of the states. He or she is not elected by the people. Thus far no female has ever been elected to this office. President Steinmeier is a member of the CDU. Steinmeier is in his second term. The constitution bars him from seeking a third.