Experts say Hamas is highly likely to reject a disarmament proposal outlined in Israeli media because it does not include firm assurances that Israel would withdraw in return. Negotiations over a Gaza peace plan have stalled, with Israel warning it could resume full-scale military operations if Hamas does not disarm quickly.
The second phase of the ceasefire brokered by the United States was intended to include Hamas giving up its weapons, Israeli forces leaving Gaza, and a temporary Palestinian administration taking over with support from local police and an international stabilisation force. However, the 20-point framework linked to Donald Trump’s newly formed Board of Peace reportedly leaves the order of these steps unclear.
Israeli leaders are said to be pressing for Hamas’s complete disarmament to happen before any Israeli withdrawal, and officials have been briefing journalists that Washington may impose a 60-day deadline for demilitarisation.
Bezalel Smotrich reportedly claimed that Hamas would soon face an ultimatum from Washington to fully disarm, and that if the group refused, the Israel Defense Forces would move to enforce it with international and US backing, The Guardian reported.
Observers note that even if a disarmament process were announced, there is no clear authority ready to take custody of Hamas’s weapons within such a short timeframe. The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a group of Palestinian technocrats meeting in Cairo, is reportedly preparing to govern the territory but lacks funding and security arrangements and is not yet in a position to deploy inside Gaza.
Israeli media have reported that the committee could propose a phased, six-month disarmament process beginning with heavy weapons, along with demands for an inventory of arms and maps of Hamas’s tunnel network.
Analysts argue that Hamas would be unlikely to accept such terms because they would require the group to give up its remaining leverage without guarantees of Israeli withdrawal or the disarmament of other armed factions, leaving its members exposed during any transition.
Muhammad Shehada of the European Council on Foreign Relations was cited as saying that Hamas would reject a plan that required it to gradually hand over all weapons. He suggested the group might instead consider freezing or decommissioning heavy weaponry such as rockets while keeping light arms for self-protection in case of internal unrest or renewed Israeli military action.
The Board of Peace reportedly held its first working meeting in Washington last week, but participants did not emerge with a clearer agreement on how disarmament should proceed.
Hamas’s expectation that Israel intends to resume the war is said to have further strengthened its resolve to retain its weapons. Smotrich has indicated that he anticipates the disarmament process will fail and that Israel will ultimately impose direct military control over Gaza and establish Jewish settlements there.
H.A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute reportedly warned that making the entire plan conditional on Hamas disarming would almost certainly cause it to collapse.
“The process is made to depend on Hamas disarming; otherwise, everything else is temporarily held up, until Israel decides to return to full-scale war,” Hellyer said on X. “This isn’t a situation that lends itself to positive outcomes.”