Despite escalating trade tensions with the United States, China’s exports surged by 12.4% year-on-year in March, significantly outperforming forecasts and offering a rare bright spot for the country’s economy.
The export growth figure, released by China’s General Administration of Customs on Monday, more than doubled the 4.6% growth anticipated in a Bloomberg survey. However, imports during the same period declined by 4.3%, underscoring the ongoing fragility of domestic demand.
Last month, China’s leadership reaffirmed its ambitious annual economic growth target of around five percent, promising to shift focus toward boosting consumption and internal economic activity. However, progress remains complicated by the intensifying trade war with the United States and domestic economic hurdles, including sluggish household spending and a debt-laden property sector.
The ongoing tariff battle between Beijing and Washington has sharply escalated in recent months.
U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have soared to 145 percent, prompting China to retaliate with duties of up to 125 percent on American imports. Despite the tensions, the United States remained China’s largest export market in the first quarter of 2025, with shipments totaling $115.6 billion.
Analysts suggest that the strong March export numbers may be temporary.
Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that the spike likely reflects exporters rushing to ship goods ahead of impending tariff hikes. “China's exports will likely weaken in the coming months as new U.S. tariffs take effect,” Zhang warned, citing high policy uncertainty.
To counteract domestic economic pressures, Beijing introduced several policy measures over the past year. These include cutting interest rates, easing home purchase restrictions, raising borrowing limits for local governments, and increasing support for financial markets. However, many of these efforts have yet to produce lasting results.