An Azerbaijan Airlines flight en route from Baku to Grozny tragically crashed near Aqtau, Kazakhstan, on Christmas Day, killing 38 of the 67 passengers and crew onboard.
The Embraer 190 jet had reportedly requested an emergency landing shortly before the crash, which has now raised concerns about a possible accidental strike by a Russian surface-to-air missile or antiaircraft fire, according to military and aviation experts.
Initial investigations reveal damage to the plane’s fuselage and tail section, consistent with shrapnel impact from a missile, as reported by multiple foreign media outlets.
Footage circulating online shows large holes in the aircraft’s body, further supporting this theory. The Wall Street Journal and other sources have noted that the incident occurred near an area of heightened Ukrainian drone activity, with Grozny, a heavily defended city, being a key target in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Experts, including Russian military blogger Yury Podolyaka, suggest that the damage aligns with an antiaircraft missile strike. Additionally, aviation risk analyst Matt Borie highlighted that circumstances in southwest Russia's airspace indicate potential misidentification of the commercial jet as a hostile target.
Survivors seated in the tail section reported hearing loud explosions shortly after the plane’s request to land at Grozny Airport was denied. The explosions are suspected to be from the plane’s oxygen tanks. Visuals from the crash showed the jet struggling to maintain altitude before crashing three kilometers from Aqtau Airport.
Azerbaijan Airlines initially suggested a bird strike as the cause but later retracted the statement. The aircraft’s black box has been recovered, and flight data is under analysis to determine the exact cause of the crash.
Should the investigation confirm a missile strike, this would mark the second instance of a civilian aircraft being downed by Russian military action, following the 2014 Malaysian Airlines MH-17 tragedy. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urged restraint, emphasizing the need to await the investigation's conclusion.
Kazakhstan's Senate speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, stated that no premature conclusions could be drawn, with all involved parties committed to transparency.
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev declared a day of mourning and canceled his planned visit to Russia for a CIS summit. He extended condolences to the victims' families and announced measures to investigate the disaster thoroughly. Initial statements cited worsening weather conditions as a potential factor.