New observations from the James Webb Space Telescope have confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 will not collide with the Moon in 2032, according to NASA.
Scientists said the asteroid will pass safely at a distance of about 21,200 km from the lunar surface on December 22, 2032. Earlier estimates had suggested a 4.3 percent probability of a lunar impact, but refined calculations have now reduced that probability to zero.
NASA said the updated assessment is based on improved precision in determining the asteroid’s orbit rather than any change in its trajectory.
Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory used the Webb telescope to observe the asteroid on February 18 and February 26, 2026. The infrared capability of the telescope allowed scientists to detect the object even though it was too faint for most other telescopes, making it one of the faintest asteroids observed using the instrument.
The asteroid was first discovered in late 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. Early observations suggested a small but notable risk of an impact with Earth, but continued tracking by scientists worldwide has since ruled out any collision with Earth in 2032 or at any other time.
NASA said global coordination plays a key role in monitoring potential asteroid threats. Observations from telescopes around the world are analysed by systems such as the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to calculate impact probabilities.
Potential threats are communicated through the International Asteroid Warning Network, while NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office leads efforts to monitor and respond to possible hazards from near-Earth objects.