The world has been closely watching for the outcome of the Kremlin talks between US President Trump’s special envoy for the Ukraine conflict, Steve Wittkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner, with Russian President Vladimir Putin. American sources suggested the discussions were likely to meet their objectives. However, the sticking point of territories occupied by Russia remains a deal-breaker. Ukraine and its European allies have expressed concern that Trump — who insists his priority is to end the worst war in Europe since World War II — is pressuring Ukraine, a key partner in its alliance, into a compromise that effectively amounts to capitulation. Neither Trump’s summit with Putin in Alaska in August nor his subsequent talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky have yielded proposals acceptable to both sides. Meanwhile, observers note that Trump appears to continue pushing Ukraine toward making significant concessions to secure a resolution to the conflict.
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The Ukraine began with Russia’s invasion of the country in February 2022, and the prospects for a resolution have remained slim, except for occasional reversals of the upper hand alternately for either side. In the meantime, Trump assumed office in the White House. News circles are now filled with the speculations about by renewed US-led ceasefire initiatives, accompanied by Trump’s assertion that America does not need to wageother countries' wars all over the whole world for others and that he could “end the war in an hour.” In this environment, Ukraine — whose survival has depended heavily on the moral and military support of the United States and the European Union — now feels far less certain about continued American backing. While Russia is widely known to have made significant territorial gains, it is also estimated to have suffered nearly one million casualties. Reports also indicate that Ukraine continues inflicting losses through small-scale drone attacks as a way to counter Russia’s overwhelming military advantage. Russia claims that around 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. At present, roughly twenty percent of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian control. The key compromise element proposed by Trump is to allow Russia to retain these occupied regions.
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The Ukraine war, now stretching beyond 1,300 days, is affecting not only the two belligerent countries but the entire world. Ukraine’s sharp decline in food grain exports—particularly wheat for which the world banks on Ukraine—has disrupted global supply chains. At the same time, reduced crude oil exports from Russia, one of the world’s major crude oil producers, have further strained the global economy. Compounding this is the economic slowdown faced by several countries, especially in Europe, as a result of US and EU sanctions on Russia. Since the global oil trade is denominated primarily in US dollars, these disruptions reverberate far beyond the immediate conflict zone, impacting the global economy as a whole.
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While the United Nations — an institution meant to hold and wield the power to enforce peace among the world’s strongest nations — has shown complete helplessness and inaction, the country stepping forward with a peace plan is United States, which is in many ways a party to the war. On one side stands Russian President Vladimir Putin, who believes he has nothing to lose if the war continues; on the other is President Zelensky, who will settle for a face-saving solution. But Zelensky wants firm assurances from Russia that there will be no further aggression, the possibility of reclaiming at least some of the occupied territories, and a shift in Russia’s position that currently blocks Ukraine from joining NATO permanently.
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Zelensky argues that Trump’s peace formula—promoted as the work of someone who “knows how to end wars” — is effectively suicidal for Ukraine. He warns that formally accepting the invasion would only invite future invasions. A case in point is that of Crimea: ever since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it has never shown any intent to return it; and since then, four more regions of Ukraine have also been annexed. The core of Trump’s proposal is that Ukraine should cede these territories to Russia in exchange for a Russian guarantee not to seize additional land. If Russia violates this pledge in the future, the party to fight that will be NATO which would then be obliged to assist Ukraine. But then Ukraine is barred from attaining membership in NATO. In essence, the plan requires Ukraine and its allies to accept Russia — seen by them as a major threat — in a scheme presided over by the US. Unsurprisingly, European nations cannot support such a proposal. They are unwilling to stand by while the United States effectively abandons Ukraine. As a result, Europe and the wider international community are watching closely what proposals the US ultimately puts forward at this critical stage.