The Centre has decided to kick start the census in 2025. It should have been held in 2021 but was postponed in the name of Covid pandemic. There is no need of convincing anybody about the relevance of the process that civilized states carry out every ten years systematically and accurately. The data gleaned from the census is the primary source to know about whether the population has increased or decreased and among them what is the ratio of young people, children, women and elderly, and the status of people in terms of education, health and finance; how far the dream of welfare state has blossomed, what should be the schemes and where they should be implemented. In addition, the redrawing of constituencies for Lok Sabha and legislative assemblies relies on census. The Modi regime is planning to hold the next Lok Sabha polls upon completing the delimitation process in 2029 beginning in 2027. Alongside, the government looks forward to implementing 33 percent reservation for women, as its bill was earlier passed by the parliament.
Even as offering to conduct census next year, the government keeps silent on caste census. The INDIA bloc questions the government for not announcing if caste census will be conducted or not. The United Janata Dal, an alliance partner in the NDA government, has also called for caste census. Other alliance parties including TDP, NJU, Republican Party, Apna Dal also share the same view. However, the upper caste, who are a minority in the population, is concerned about the caste census. Narendra Modi-Amit Shah team finds it hard to take the crucial decision as this minority is the driving force of the BJP. The Opposition will certainly take advantage of the BJP falling out with its alliance partners. The decision to redraw the constituencies based on new census could be as or more complex. South India has already raised its justifiable concern that population growth of north Indian states, which are lagging behind in family planning, will be more than the total population of Andhra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala that are well advanced in family planning. Telugu Desam Party, one of the main constituents in ruling NDA, has demanded that delimitation of constituencies, supposed to be done in 2031, should not be carried out before 2029. The party demands that delimitation should be based on 1971 census. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin has also expressed concern over the fall in number of parliamentary seats. According to a study report, the new census will result in increasing 32 seats in North India while causing to reduce 16 seats in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. A shortfall of eight seats is expected in Andhra and Telangana states.
A private agency claims that the South India will lose a total of 24 Lok Sabha constituencies. On the other hand Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will get 21 more constituencies. Let’s not forget that UP is already a state with 80 constituencies. The situation suggests that the move to redraw constituencies in 2026 based on new census prior to the 2029 poll is Hindutva party’s strategy to ensure a fourth term. The exhortation by N. Chandrababu Naidu and M.K. Stalin to the people of their respective state to beget more children is quite laughable. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call to beget two children as the country suffered set back from fall in population was not successful. Then, who will be heedful to the call of Chandrababu Naidu and M.K. Stalin? Years ago, the Singapore government’s call to beget more children met with same negation from the people. This is the inevitable outcome in all societies where the idea of ‘Small family, happy family’ was exhorted spending crores of rupees. We understand things better when they are so close to home.