On 28 February, the State of Israel announced that Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed at his official residence. Iran later confirmed the death of its Supreme Leader. The United States provided intelligence regarding Khamenei’s whereabouts.
Khamenei had ruled since the death of Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. Prior to that, Khamenei was president. Benjamin Netanyahu called Khamenei a cruel tyrant, but many would call Netanyahu an even crueller tyrant. Khamenei made the fatal mistake of meeting several high-ranking officers at a location he frequents. The Israelis thought this too tempting a target to miss.
Several other senior Iranian military and political figures have since been slain in other locations, including former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Israel used drones and missiles. Some missiles were ground-launched, and some were fired from Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets. The IAF has been able to fly over Iranian airspace with impunity. The United States Air Force (USAF) has also flown sorties over Iran. The United States Navy (USN) stationed in the Gulf has fired salvoes of rockets at the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This is the first time that the United States has killed a foreign leader. It is illegal under US law for the USA to kill a foreign leader other than as part of a war. The US has not declared war on Iran, and Khamenei was an unarmed civilian; indeed, he was a sickly octogenarian.
The Iranians said over 180 civilians have been killed by Israel and the US in the last 3 days. They claim a girls’ school was hit by the US, and this killed over 100 children.
Iran struck Gulf Arab countries, claiming it was aiming at US military bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Three US military personnel have been killed and several more injured. Several civilians have been killed across Gulf Arab countries.
It seems that Iran has targeted airports and luxury accommodation and claimed to have ‘missed’ US military bases. US military bases have excellent air defence, so it is unlikely that Iranian missiles and drones would often hit them.
It seems that Iran is generally not even targeting US bases but instead is aiming at economic targets. Iran’s strategy seems to be to cause havoc for major airports and to make the UAE and other Gulf Arab countries pay a heavy economic price for having US military bases on their soil.
Were it not for the presence of US military forces in these countries, it would be much harder for the United States to launch major strikes on Iran. Yes, the US Navy has ships in the Gulf, but it has a limited number of ships, and there are only so many missiles and drones they can fit on ships.
Oman has not been targeted by Iran. That is because it is neutral and does not host US military bases.
In January 2026, Donald Trump ordered the USN to assemble assets in the Gulf. He seemed to be preparing a major attack on Iran as the country was rocked by protests. He said he would help the protestors. Gulf Arab countries talked him out of military action. Iran said that if the United States attacked it then Iran would hit US military bases in the Gulf.
In February 2026, Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel visited Washington DC. He talked to Trump and persuaded him to go ahead with major attacks on Iran.
The ostensible reasons for US attacks on Iran are to prevent Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon; to stop Iran from sponsoring terrorism, and to prevent Iran from destabilising the region.
Notably, the US stated regime change as an aim. It is thought improbable that regime change can be brought about by aerial bombardment, no matter how heavy. Iran has persistently denied ever attempting to develop nuclear weapons and, for years, subjected itself to intensive UN weapons inspections to verify that it was not attempting to make nuclear weapons.
This was under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Trump twice extended this plan. Then he ended it. As the US unilaterally broke the JCPOA, the Iranians said they would enrich more uranium. They had limited their enriched uranium to a tiny amount under the JCPOA. Trump breaking the deal brought Iran closer to a nuclear bomb.
Khamenei was 85 years of age and infirm. He did not have many more years to live. There had already been rife speculation about who would replace him.
Gulf Arab countries have long had an unfriendly rivalry with Iran. The Iranians are intensely aware that they are Persians and not Arabs. Moreover, Iran is 90% Shia, whereas all Gulf Arab countries are majority Sunni, except Bahrain, which is ruled by its Sunni minority. The Shia Bahrainis are thought to be mostly of Iranian descent. Iran used to claim Bahrain, which it ruled until the 18th century. Moreover, Iran disputes the Hawar Islands with Qatar.
The Gulf Arab countries decided that they needed US military bases to protect them from Iran. Iran, with 85 million people, has more people than all Gulf Arab countries combined.
Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of Islam and often lists itself as 100% Sunni. In fact, it has a small Shia minority which lives almost exclusively in the Eastern Province. Iran has often sought to incite the Shia in Saudi Arabia to rebel.
In 2016, relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia were very bad. Saudi Arabia closed the border and refused to let Qatar Airways overfly its airspace. Qatar was pushed closer to Iran out of economic necessity. In the decade since, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have re-established amicable relations. By contrast, relations between Qatar and Iran have cooled. The Iranian attacks have united the Gulf Arab countries, although Oman is still not allowing the US military onto their land.
Dubai International Airport (DXB) is one of the busiest in the world, and it was attacked by Iran. It is rumoured that one person was killed. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been obliged to cancel all flights in and out of DXB, Abu Dhabi Airport, Sharjah Airport and others. Emirates, Air Arabia and Etihad are major earners for the UAE. It is unclear when the airports will reopen. An A380 costs USD 300 million. If Iran destroys one of these, even with no one on board, then it will cost the UAE dear.
Gulf Arab countries suffer reputational damage. Previously, they marketed themselves as ultra-safe. Affluent people from all over the world flocked there to take advantage of this and the zero income tax. These countries made money from tourism, high-end shopping, international students, health tourism, airlines, sporting events and high finance.
This has been jeopardised by Iran. It is very easy to scare people. In 1991, Saddam Hussein threatened to bomb passenger planes flying across the Atlantic. In fact, he never bombed a single one. But the threat was enough to reduce passenger numbers drastically, and this led to Pan Am (one of the USA’s biggest airlines) going bust.
A huge portion of the world’s oil passes through the Gulf of Hormuz between the UAE and Iran. This is now insecure, leading to an oil price spike. That is good news for Russia. Russia’s budget was based on being paid USD 59 per barrel, but before March 2026, it was being paid USD 41 per barrel: a disastrous shortfall.
Rising oil prices hurt the world economy. American consumers hate paying more for gasoline. If Trump hits Americans in the pocket, then they will punish the Republican Party at the polls in the November midterm elections.
Why did Trump launch these attacks now? It distracts people from the Epstein Files, which show his links to the late Jeffrey Epstein. It also misdirects people from his failings in the economy. There is a brief uptick in his poll ratings because he is seen as tough. But his action against Venezuela and Cuba has not led to regime change.
No one is talking about a ground invasion. American public opinion will not tolerate it. Donald J Trump denounced the forever wars of the Bush-Obama era. There are some in the Republican Party who decried even these limited air strikes on Iran.
Canada is one of the few countries to lend vocal support to the US-Israeli action. This may perhaps allay Trump’s desire to annex Canada.
Many countries have denounced the Israeli-US attack as unlawful. Russia, China, India, Venezuela, North Korea, Cuba and Belarus have all excoriated the action. Even Western and NATO countries, such as Spain, have spoken out against it.
It is doubtful that these attacks are legal. Iran has not fired a shot at Israel or US assets for months. Even then, it was only responding to their attacks. Iran has never claimed an inch of its soil, nor has one of its soldiers ever stepped onto their territory. The United States and Israel have not declared war on Iran.
The US Congress has not voted for military action. This is not self-defence. The avowed US aim is to effect political change in Iran, but that is not a legal reason for military action. The United Nations Charter expressly disavows interfering with the political independence of another state as a reason for war.
Even traditional US allies such as France and the United Kingdom have not voiced approval for the attacks. The UK refused to allow the Americans to use British military bases for these attacks. Now, Royal Air Force (i.e. British) jets have flown from Qatar to shoot down incoming drones. London has shifted its position: it will defend from Iranian attacks, but it shall not attack Iran. Even that displeases some in the United Kingdom.
Iran will soon run out of missiles and drones. They bought some assets from Russia in early 2026, but Russia has very little to spare. China has also sold weapons to Iran. But the Iranian economy is reeling from sanctions, and the Iranian rial has lost value dramatically in the last few months. Tehran can ill afford more weapons purchases.
The Iranian regime knows they need to de-escalate. Talks were ongoing until Tel Aviv and Washington DC launched these attacks. Gulf Arab nations will be eager to convince the United States to end the conflict.
This American unlawful violence is a gift to Russia. It is a diversion from Ukraine. Putin will say that, as the US violates international law, Russia may do so as well. The Global South will say that they need a multipolar world.
A war is very easy to start but difficult to end. There is no telling how long this will go on for.