The Houthi advance and the looming challenges

An unexpected gambit emerging from the shores of the Red Sea has sent shockwaves across West Asia in particular and the world in general.  It particularly unsettles the United States and its key allies in the Gulf. The Houthi rebels, who control large swathes of Yemen, including the capital Sana’a, have sought to project their power far beyond Yemen’s borders by asserting control over some of the most strategically important maritime positions along the Red Sea. Their moves have placed the Bab al-Mandab Strait—a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden—and the Yemeni port of Mokha at the centre of a rapidly evolving geopolitical confrontation.

The Shia Islamist armed movement has also seized the strategically located Perim Island, which sits in the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Control or disruption of these strategic locations gives the Houthis significant leverage over shipping between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, raising concerns about the security of international trade and the wider balance of power in the Arabian Peninsula. Though fighting intensified, the government forces, assisted by Saudi Arabia failed to retake the territory captured by the rebels.  But this time, the US, a key ally of Saudi Arabia, kept aloof from the conflict.  It is said to be because they have struck a deal with the Houthis not to attack each other.

What is alarming is the potential oil crisis due to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and now the Bab al-Mandab. So far the strait in the Red Sea has been open to all ships. However, the Houthi control over the strait poses a challenge to Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in the Middle East. Saudi authorities have to shut the East West pipeline that carries crude oil from the oil fields to the Red sea port of Yanbu and from there to the rest of the world. The traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is already in disarray due to its partial closure by Iran. Anyway, the situation is volatile in the Middle East and it does not go well for the US and its allies.

Who are the Houthis?

The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah (meaning supporters of Allah), are a Yemeni political and armed movement rooted in the Zaidi branch of Shia religious group, which has a long historical presence in northern Yemen. The movement takes its name from Hussein al-Houthi, a Zaidi religious and political figure who emerged as a prominent critic of Yemen’s government in the early 2000s. The movement,  which are closer to Sunnis in terms of their tenets which are far from some of the  tenets of traditional Shiites,  initially grew out of a religious and cultural revival among Zaidi communities who believed that their political influence, cultural identity and economic interests had been increasingly marginalised.

The roots of the conflict between the Houthis and the Yemeni government go back to the rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh, who governed Yemen for decades. Although Saleh himself was a Zaidi, the Houthis increasingly opposed his authoritarian style of government,  corruption, economic policies and close relationship with the United States and Saudi Arabia. Hussein al-Houthi also became increasingly critical of Washington’s policies in the Middle East, particularly following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

These tensions eventually erupted into an armed confrontation between the Houthis and the Yemeni government in 2004. Hussein al-Houthi was killed that year, but the movement that carried his name survived and fought the government in several rounds of conflict between 2004 and 2010.

The situation changed dramatically during Yemen’s Arab Spring uprising in 2011. Saleh was eventually forced to step down and was replaced by his vice president, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, through a Gulf Cooperation Council-backed political transition. Hadi’s government, however, struggled to restore stability, resolve Yemen’s deep political divisions and address economic hardship. The Houthis exploited the weakness of the central government and expanded their territorial and political influence.

In 2014, the Houthis moved into the capital, Sana’a, initially mobilising large demonstrations over fuel-price increases and demanding political reforms and a new government. That  soon became a military takeover. By September 2014, Houthi forces had seized much of Sana’a, and in January 2015 they seized the presidential palace and placed further pressure on Hadi’s government. Hadi eventually fled the country, and the Houthis consolidated their control over much of northern Yemen.

The conflict then became an internationalised war. In March 2015, Saudi Arabia led a military coalition that intervened in Yemen with the declared objective of restoring the internationally recognised government and pushing back the Houthi advance. Iran has provided significant support to the Houthis, particularly military assistance.

Over time, the Houthis have transformed themselves from a northern Yemeni religious-political movement into one of the region’s most powerful armed non-state actors, controlling a large portion of Yemen, including Sana’a.

The looming dangers

The Houthis have proved that they are a formidable force in Yemen that could even attack Israel when it comes to the Gaza war. Its support for Palestine and the opposition to America and Israel are loud and clear. Indeed Houthis' relations with its neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia,  is not at all cordial. Saudi Arabia backs the internationally recognized government that opposes the Houthis or the Presidential Leadership Council headed by Rashad Mohammed Al Alimi. The Houthis, supported by Iran, is a perennial threat to the Saudi cities and its oil reserves and pipeline. It is also a challenge to the countries who support Saudi Arabia unless it is weakened militarily. However, the powerful ally of Saudi Arabia, the US, is reluctant to act due to its domestic pressure and its unsuccessful operation against Iran. On the other hand, Iran is further emboldened by the successful advance of the Houthis,  whom some call Iranian proxies, in the Red Sea.  No doubt, it is a troubling development for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.