On 7 July, the United States recommenced attacks on the Islamic Republic of Iran. The USA accused Iran of attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This was cited as casus belli. Both Iran and the United States had traded accusations of material breaches of the ceasefire signed in June 2026.
On 10 July, President Trump set forth to Congress his reasons for restarting the war. He repeated the claim about Iran attacking merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This is an arterial route for oil and liquid natural gas. Both are the lifeblood of the global economy. Closing or even threatening to close the strait impacts energy prices and therefore the price of everything: food, flights, manufactured goods, etc. Every product or service is related directly or indirectly to hydrocarbons. But when Iran had the ceasefire that it wanted and was rebuilding its battered economy, why would they attack merchant ships?
Even the US did not accuse Iran of sinking a merchant ship or seizing one after the ceasefire. Some merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz were hit by projectiles, but it is unclear who did this.
Donald J Trump said that the United States was obliged to retaliate against Iran so that the Iranians would desist from such attacks on merchant ships. Trump argued that if the United States did not do so, then Tehran would be emboldened. He noted that Iran can still control the Strait of Hormuz and has significant missile capability. The Iranians have proxies and allies. He accused the Iranians of retaining a nuclear weapons programme. It has been longstanding US policy to prevent the Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapon.
Trump, being probably the most dishonest person of all time, his statements cannot be believed as such. His claim that Iran retains missiles is irrelevant since Iran is entitled to armaments. It needs them because it is so often aggressed by Israel and the USA. Are the Israelis and Americans not armed with missiles too? Yes, Iran has allies and proxies, and this is no reason to attack Iran. All the things Trump said were known to him when he signed the ceasefire in June. Therefore, there is no justification for renewing the war.
The Houthi insurgents in Yemen are Iran’s allies. The Houthis are part of the 40% of Yemenis who are Shia. The Sunni majority holds the government and is aligned with Saudi Arabia. The Houthis are mostly in the mountainous west of the country. They can attack ships in the Bab al Mandab (Gate of Tears). That is the strait between Yemen and Djibouti. There is only 12 km of navigable water there. It is a chokepoint for world trade.
The claim that Iran is striving to develop a nuclear weapon is a red herring. These claims go back to the 1970s. If it were true, then the Iranians would have had one long ago. The Grand Ayatollah issued a fatwa decades ago prohibiting efforts to make a nuclear weapon.
President Trump sought to use extreme pressure. This included armed attacks as well as sanctions. This did not bring Iran to its knees. Hardliners in Iran have been vindicated. It has been proven that the US does not negotiate in good faith and will renege on every agreement. The US only respects strength. Americans are cowards, and they are not willing to take casualties. Only 14 American troops were killed, and the United States made peace. Iran has been pushed into an alliance with Russia and North Korea.
Donald Trump is an ignoramus who is rumoured to be suffering from Alzheimer’s. He likes to pretend to be tough. He wanted to achieve a victory over Iran that his nemesis Barack Obama did not. There are fanatical Zionists in his administration who want the USA to be a slave to Israel. They opposed the ceasefire.
The US has breached international law by attacking targets that are exclusively civilian. Apart from Israel, no US allies are participating in this war. European countries are neutral at best.
The Democratic Party in the USA is against the war. Trump’s Republican Party is mostly in favour. But there is a growing minority in the party that is against it. US public opinion opposes the war by an ever-greater margin. The midterm elections in November will be bad for the Republicans.