President Donald Trump has finished a state visit to the People's Republic of China (PRC). A state visit is the highest expression of cordiality between nations. Its implication is that there are no major unresolved disputes between the two countries. Trump was accompanied by several CEOs of major companies, most of them donors to his Republican Party. One of them was the world’s richest man, Elon Musk. The visit was high on rhetoric and limited in substantive outcomes. Bearing in mind the difficult Sino-US disagreements on several issues, it is somewhat surprising that the state visit proceeded at all.
The American President remarked, with his trademark hyperbole, that the visit had led to “fantastic trade deals — great for both countries.” Donald Trump visited China during his first presidential term and was similarly ebullient following his state visit in 2018. However, this did not prevent him from imposing sweeping tariffs on China in 2025. It is difficult to negotiate with Trump because he is often perceived as erratic and unpredictable. He is known for changing his position rapidly, sometimes even within the course of a single conversation.
Donald Trump displays a marked admiration for authoritarian leaders. He appears to envy their unconstrained authority. The President of China had previously been limited to serving two five-year terms, amounting to a maximum of ten years in office. Xi Jinping had this article of the Constitution rescinded, thereby enabling him to remain president indefinitely. Trump publicly congratulated him on this decision. Trump has also shown warmth towards authoritarian figures such as Kim Jong Un, with whom he once said he had “fallen in love.”
President Xi greeted his American counterpart with a guard of honour, a mighty military parade, and a state banquet. Trump was welcomed to the Great Hall of the People. Xi also invited President Trump to the compound where Chinese leaders live and work, emphasising that this was a rare honour. Trump, who places considerable emphasis on personal recognition and validation, has often boasted that foreign leaders show him greater deference than any previous American president. The Chinese leadership handled him skilfully.
The Chinese leadership appears to find Trump easier to deal with than previous American presidents. One reason is that Trump refrained from publicly criticising China on issues relating to democracy and human rights during the visit. He did not mention human rights in Beijing, nor did he issue the customary Western statements about democratic values. Chinese officials have long expressed frustration at what they perceive as moral lecturing from the West.
China has been accused by various governments and human rights organisations of severe abuses against the Muslim Uyghur minority. Certain Christian denominations have also faced persecution. Freedom of speech remains heavily restricted in China, and some political opinions can result in severe punishment, including life imprisonment. Human rights groups have alleged widespread use of torture. China executes more people than the rest of the world combined, often for crimes that other countries would regard as comparatively minor, such as possession of cannabis above a specified amount. China asserts that non-interference in internal affairs is a cardinal principle of international law. Critics, however, argue that Beijing contradicts this principle by allegedly operating unofficial police stations abroad and pursuing dissidents overseas.
Donald Trump appeared either indifferent or insufficiently attentive to large-scale Chinese espionage concerns in the United States, and therefore did not publicly address the issue during the visit.
Trade
The tariffs that President Trump imposed on China last year were subsequently suspended until November 2026 in order to encourage negotiations. Trump has declared bankruptcy multiple times in his business career. Business executives frequently stress that certainty and continuity are essential for commerce and investment, whereas unpredictability and instability discourage both. At present, many companies remain uncertain about future US trade policy.
When Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States, the additional costs were largely borne by American consumers rather than Chinese companies. Although these tariffs reduced purchases of Chinese goods, they did not necessarily result in increased consumption of American-made products. China responded with retaliatory tariffs, which also affected the US economy.
President Trump’s claim that excellent trade agreements were reached between the United States and China appears exaggerated. Broad principles may have been discussed, but detailed agreements were not finalised. Trump is widely regarded as highly susceptible to political flattery and personal praise. As someone who places considerable emphasis on personal rapport, he appears to view the relationship between the United States and China largely through the prism of his own relationship with President Xi Jinping.
The claim that the USA and the PRC will enjoy an outstanding trading relationship is undermined by Trump’s own statement that tariffs were not discussed in detail during his meetings with Xi. Trump’s team announced that the two countries would establish a Board of Trade to oversee commercial relations, although this has not been formally confirmed by Beijing.
The items traded between the United States and China include food products, semiconductors, civilian aircraft, electric vehicles, and AI chips. The United States is eager for China to purchase Boeing aircraft rather than planes manufactured by Airbus. China possesses some of the world’s largest airlines, including Cathay Pacific, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines.
International aviation has also been affected by the ongoing conflict involving Iran, although many observers believe the disruption may prove temporary. Trump claimed that China had agreed to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft, though this has not been independently confirmed. Likewise, his assertion that China had promised to buy more soybeans remains unverified. China may ultimately purchase additional aircraft and agricultural products, but such outcomes were not guaranteed by the state visit itself.
The American company Tesla operates a gigafactory in Shanghai and sells extensively within the Chinese market. NVIDIA seeks permission to resume sales of advanced chips to China, something that has been restricted for several years under US export controls. These controls are intended to prevent China from obtaining the most advanced AI capabilities. Chinese officials have lobbied for restrictions to be eased, and artificial intelligence was reportedly a major topic of discussion during the visit. NVIDIA’s founder was reportedly added to the delegation at the last moment.
The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, accompanied the visit and claimed that an agreement had been reached regarding Chinese purchases of American food products. China had restricted imports of American poultry and beef in 2025. American farmers, an important constituency for the Republican Party, are eager to see these restrictions removed. Beijing, however, did not confirm that any final agreement had been reached.
The American delegation also wishes to encourage greater Chinese investment in the United States. Meanwhile, China seeks broader access to the American market, which remains the world’s largest economy. China is a crucial market for many American companies, and Trump’s tariffs have negatively affected several sectors. The commercial environment remains difficult due to Byzantine bureaucracy and the slow pace of negotiations.
China also has strong incentives to maintain favourable relations with the United States. Before 2008, the Chinese economy frequently grew at rates exceeding 10 per cent annually. Official figures now place growth at around 5 per cent, although some analysts believe the real figure is significantly lower. China has an ageing population, while the number of university graduates has increased dramatically. Many parents invested heavily in their children’s education with the expectation that highly paid employment would follow. For many young people, however, this expectation has not been fulfilled.
There is now a generation of underemployed or unemployed twenty-somethings who are educated and increasingly aware of democratic ideas abroad. The Chinese government is concerned that economic frustration could eventually lead to social unrest. Since embracing market reforms in the 1980s, the implicit social contract in China has often been described as follows: citizens would accept political restrictions in exchange for rising prosperity. Although the Chinese economy continues to grow, it is not expanding rapidly enough to satisfy expectations formed during earlier decades of spectacular growth. The government is anxious because economic growth appears likely to continue slowing and may eventually stagnate.
In 2008, some analysts predicted that China would overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy by 2030. Today, many economists regard that prospect as increasingly unlikely.
Disagreements
There remain several major disagreements between the PRC and the United States. China has strongly criticised the American and Israeli military campaign against Iran. China and Iran maintain close relations, and some China-bound vessels have reportedly been allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without interference from Iranian forces.
The United States would like China to cease purchasing Iranian oil. Washington believes that reducing Chinese purchases would place severe pressure on the Iranian economy, which has proved more resilient than many American policymakers anticipated.
Cuba is another issue on which Washington and Beijing disagree sharply. China has denounced the American embargo on Cuba as illegal and as an unwarranted interference in the domestic affairs of another country.
On Ukraine, the United States and China remain far apart. China abstained from United Nations Security Council resolutions condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has rewarded China with discounted oil, gas, and coal. Chinese exports and technology have also been important in sustaining the Russian war economy.
In 2022, the administration of Joe Biden hoped that China might use its influence to persuade Russia to end the war. That did not occur. Trump now appears less sympathetic towards Ukraine than he once was, although officially, the United States still supports Ukraine. The United States provides limited military assistance and financial aid compared with earlier stages of the conflict, but American sanctions on Russia and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine remain important.
Taiwan remains an especially sensitive issue for Beijing. Many people in mainland China strongly reject any suggestion that Taiwan constitutes an independent country.
Taiwan became the refuge of the Kuomintang after its defeat in the Chinese Civil War in 1949. The Kuomintang had ruled China for the previous forty years under the name of the Republic of China (ROC). After the communist victory, mainland China became officially known as the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Taiwan still officially uses the name Republic of China and historically maintained its own claim to represent all of China. Most Taiwanese are ethnically Han Chinese, the same ethnicity as the overwhelming majority of people in mainland China, and Mandarin remains the principal language of both societies. Taiwan itself has not formally declared independence.
The United States derecognised Taiwan diplomatically during the 1970s and instead recognised the PRC. Beijing insists upon a “One China” policy, under which countries may formally recognise either the PRC or Taiwan, but not both. The PRC regards Taiwan as a breakaway province that must eventually be reunited with the mainland.
Taiwan is one of the world’s wealthiest economies and produces a substantial proportion of the world’s semiconductors. It maintains extensive commercial ties with the United States. Washington has offered Taiwan significant incentives to relocate semiconductor manufacturing to America, although Taiwan has proceeded cautiously because its semiconductor dominance provides strategic leverage.
Some American politicians strongly support Taiwan. Nevertheless, Taiwan does not maintain a formal embassy in the United States and instead operates a trade office. It also remains unclear whether the United States would militarily defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Xi seeks eventual reunification with Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has expanded rapidly in recent years, and some analysts believe China may attempt military action against Taiwan within the coming years. President Xi warned the United States that mishandling the Taiwan issue could potentially lead to war.
The United States had reportedly been preparing an arms sale to Taiwan before Trump’s visit to Beijing, but the export licence was delayed by Trump. Had the sale proceeded, Beijing might have withdrawn the invitation for the state visit. Chinese officials will now closely observe whether the export licence is ultimately approved. If it is, Beijing may accuse Washington of acting in bad faith.
The United States is eager for China to use its influence with Iran to encourage an end to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Interference with this vital shipping route, through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes, has affected the global economy and indirectly harmed China as well. Even if China itself can secure adequate oil supplies at reasonable prices, many of its trading partners cannot. As a result, other countries are forced to spend more on energy and consequently have less purchasing power available for Chinese exports. Beijing expressed a desire for stability to return to the Persian Gulf, though its comparatively restrained response was notable.
President Xi has been invited to visit the United States in September this year.