Europe to Trump: fear or sweet revenge?

President Trump had a near shocking embarrassment in the refusal of America’s longtime allies—European countries, Japan, and Australia—to join an operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by and currently closed by Iran. The US and Israel's conflict with Iran has reached a critical point, with Iran closing this vital waterway. The Iranian move sent shockwaves through the global oil market and continues to negatively impact the world economy.

The Strait of Hormuz, 165 kilometers long and 39 kilometers wide at its narrowest part, is a crucial oil route through which 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas flow. Iran fully controls this strategic passage. As an official from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard declared, not a single litre of oil passes through the Strait without Iran’s permission. Despite having the world’s most powerful navy, the US faces significant risks entering the Strait due to numerous underwater mines said to be laid in it. This is a key reason why European countries and US’s allies declined to join the effort to reopen the Strait.

Germany’s defence minister made it clear: "This is not our war; we did not start it”. UK prime minister Keir Starmer echoed the same sentiment when he said the UK will not be drawn into a wider conflict. This mood is shared by other US allies, including Japan, Australia, and Canada.

Tensions between the US and NATO had already been strained by President Trump’s controversial statements—like his repeated claim that the US should take over Greenland from Denmark, which sparked protests across Europe. The remarks caused ripples among NATO members, as it is unusual, if not outright prohibited, for one NATO member to openly attack another. But Trump showed no signs of backing down.

Trade disputes added another layer of friction. Trump’s aggressive tariff policies alienated many allies, especially when he ridiculed French President Emmanuel Macron. His dismissive and at times insulting rhetoric has cost him support at critical moments. When the UK refused to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, Trump scornfully remarked, "We are not dealing with Winston Churchill," referring to Britain’s former Prime Minister.

The German defence minister’s point is valid: Neither the US nor Israel consulted their allies before launching a military campaign against Iran on February 28. This was a decision made solely by the two countries, led by what some call war-mongering leaders. But the situation quickly spiraled out of control. Iran insists it did not start the war but will decide when it ends—a typical war rhetoric, but it reflects the current stalemate.

Countries like India are now desperately appealing to Iran to allow their ships safe passage through the Strait to avoid severe shortages of oil and natural gas. Initially, the US boasted it would send its navy to protect these vessels, but later backtracked. Instead, Trump appealed for help from other countries, including China, but no one responded positively. No one is ready to send their navy to Hormuz or to risk a direct conflict with Iran. The blockade remains in place.

In naval terms, why is the Strait of Hormuz such a deadly trap? Iran has many short-range missiles and speedboats capable of attacking slow-moving oil ships. Despite Trump’s claims of crippling the Iranian navy, these threats remain real and significant.

China imports 90% of its oil from Iran and the Gulf countries. Any move to disrupt the flow of oil from the Middle East would hit the Chinese economy and its energy sector. Hence, China would hesitate to engage in a direct fight with Iran on Hormuz crisis.

Interestingly, the US is unwilling to send its naval fleet into the war zone itself. Instead, Trump expects European allies to send their warships. He has even threatened to withdraw from NATO and criticized the alliance, calling it a "very foolish mistake”. A situation that reminds one of the proverb: "If you play with fire, don’t blame the wind for spreading the flames”.

In fact, President Trump was partly emboldened by the capture of Nicolás Maduro, the former President of Venezuela, and the installation of a puppet government there. This success led him to underestimate the resilience of Iran and its people. In this conflict, the old saying "the best defence is a offence" will clearly come into play, as both sides engage aggressively in a high-stakes struggle.


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