Since the start of 2026, Iran has been roiled by demonstrations and riots. The government has hit back with large-scale violence. Some estimate that up to 2,000 people have been killed. The demonstrators are demanding different things. Some demand the downfall of the regime, and there have been chants of ‘death to Khamenei’, and a few even call for the Shah’s son to become the new head of state. There are demonstrators whose demands are more limited: they want an end to corruption and the government to tackle the economic hardship that most Iranians face.
People are asking whether Iran will have a revolution this year. There are certainly signs of a pre-revolutionary situation. A concatenation of factors makes a forcible overthrow of the government a not unlikely event. At the moment, there is not enough evidence to say that a revolution is probable.
In 1979, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was ousted. Until almost the day he boarded the plane to go abroad for medical treatment, it was not entirely clear that this was the end of his regime. After all, he had gone into exile in 1953 only to return within months in a far stronger position.
It was proof positive that the government was rattled when it switched off the internet. This is usually a prelude to large-scale state violence. Turning off the internet makes trade and education even more difficult than they normally are. It is indicative of the regime’s desperation that it opted to do that. The internet blackout made it impossible for the opposition to communicate and for news to get out.
The government senses that it has its back to the wall. This makes it even more violent. It is do or die. There is nothing to lose. Grand Ayatollah Khamenei and President Pezeshkian may conclude that they cannot win by half measures.
Trump has threatened military action against Iran if the government continues to slaughter protesters. But Trump is full of hot air. Why believe the most unreliable person of all time? He has made many idle threats against Russia. His audacious move in Venezuela has not changed the regime, just the individual at the top. The Iranian government will note the saying in Washington is TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out. The US has concluded that a ground invasion of a Muslim country is a recipe for disaster. There is one thing we can be certain of: no Western country will seek to occupy Iran.
There have been several times when Iran was rocked by protests, such as in 2023 and 2009. However, 2026 seems like the most serious threat to the regime yet. The regime rode out the storm a few times before. That does not guarantee that it will survive this time.
In 2023, the British Foreign Office privately estimated the chance of regime change in Iran that year as 50%. That was the time of the ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ movement. There were large-scale protests over the murder of a young woman for not wearing her hijab. It fell very considerably in 2024 and 2025. But towards the end of 2025, it rose again.
Hijabs are still mandatory for all pubescent and post-pubescent females in public. However, the government has let this fall into abeyance rather than risk the wrath of the masses.
Iranians are furious because of economic mismanagement. The Iranian rial lost 70% of its value in 2025. It is increasingly difficult to put nan on the table. Sanctions are really biting hard. Despite the very real suffering of millions of Iranians, the elite live in opulence. It is said that each year, billions of USD disappear into the Bank of Nowhere.
People who were neutral or even pro-government have been alienated due to the economic hardship they are suffering. The bazaaris (merchants) are a barometer of public opinion in a country where opinion polls are not allowed.
The opposition is fragmented into those who are secular (most of them) and those who want a theocracy but recognise the corruption and irreligion of the current regime. There are separatists among the ethnic minorities. Some people want a socialist society, and there are those who are capitalists. Some want Reza Pahlavi to be the Shah. However, Mr Pahlavi’s popularity is limited due to the brutality of his late father’s regime and the current dynasty’s failure to dissociate him from that, let alone recognise all that was wrong with his father’s reign. Mr Pahlavi lives in the USA and is an American citizen. With some justice, he is seen as a marionette of Washington DC. He has frequently visited Israel and spoken glowingly of the State of Israel. In a country where people have drunk in decades of anti-Israeli propaganda, this makes him seem like a foul traitor. Israel has killed so many Iranians in recent years. Moreover, Reza Pahlavi is not seen as a practising Muslim, which puts some people off him.
Iran has suffered a series of military and diplomatic defeats in the last few years. Therefore, the prestige of the government is at an all-time low.
Iran had to defend itself in a two-week war against Israel. The Israeli Air Force was able to fly over Iranian skies with impunity. The chief duty of a government is to defend the nation’s territory.
The Iranian government has often appealed to Islamic solidarity, and in particular Shia solidarity, as a source of legitimacy. This has some purchase on the public mind. The Assad regime in Syria was dominated by the 10% of Syrians who are Shia. Forces hostile to Iran overthrew Assad in 2024, which is a major loss for Tehran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had been instrumental in sustaining Assad and his Ba’ath Party. Iran bet very heavily on Assad winning, and they lost. By supporting the side that lost, it has perhaps permanently soured relations with another country.
The agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2025 was to the disadvantage of Iran. Relations between Baku and Tehran were never excellent. That is because two-thirds of historic Azerbaijan is in Iran. Moreover, for centuries, the whole of Azerbaijan was within the Persian Empire.
Iran’s relations with Pakistan are far from brilliant. Pakistan is an 80% Sunni country. The Pakistan People’s Party is dominated by the Bhutto dynasty, which is Shia.
In Iraq, the government is less friendly to Iran than before. After the Iraq War in 2003, for the first time in centuries, the Iraqi government was dominated by the Shia majority.
The Iranian government has been very helpful to the Russian Federation since 2022. Iran is one of only four other countries to vote Russia’s way in the United Nations on the Ukrainian issue, the others being Belarus, North Korea, Nicaragua and Eritrea. Note that not even Cuba or Venezuela voted for Moscow’s position.
Iranian shaheed (‘martyr’) drones have been vital in sustaining Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. The Russians now have their own plant that manufactures them. They are very cheap and fairly effective. The Iranians have been under sanctions since the early 1980s. They have adapted to them and grown adept at outmanoeuvring sanctions. They have taught the Russians how to do the same. Iran Air still has airworthy planes despite it being, on paper, impossible to buy spare parts for its planes.
In 2025, Iran began arresting Iranians who are dual citizens of Western nations. This is because they are suspected of being dissidents. Moreover, they are a means to pressurise Western governments. The message from Tehran will be: if you want this person’s release, ease sanctions on us or at least quieten your criticism of us.
The Iranian regime is not without supporters. Even the opposition abroad estimates that 15% of people are pro-regime. The true percentage is probably higher. That would not mean anything like 85% of people want a revolution. Some want only reform, and some are neutral. It is hard to judge where the demand for a revolution has reached critical mass.
The IRGC are the praetorians of the regime. They were founded after 1979, and they are steeped in its ideology. They will fight to the death for the regime. They also know that if it is overthrown, they will be severely punished.
The IRGC has its Basij, or militia. The Basij are men who do ordinary jobs but carry out security duties part-time. There are hundreds of thousands of them, and they are true believers in the Islamic Revolution. Therefore, the regime has a formidable force of people committed to fighting to the death to maintain the status quo. If a revolution comes, it will be very bloody.
As in 1979, the military could be neutral. That may well be decisive. Perhaps behind the scenes, foreign governments are seeking to persuade the army chiefs to implement a military coup.
Regime change could cause a protracted civil war. Other countries might pile in. The downfall of the regime would not automatically augur an improvement.
The USA and Israel want regime change as they see it as eliminating a foe that has dogged them since 1979. They think that then they could guarantee a new government would stop even civilian nuclear programmes. Sanctions could be lifted. Iranian oil back on the market would reduce the world price.