With as many as 10,000 troops from the Southern Transitional Council (STC), the United Arab Emirates-backed military leadership in South Yemen has swept across the entire southern region and taken full control, creating conditions in which the South may pursue a formal declaration of independence and return Yemen to a two-state arrangement not seen since 1960.
The rapid deployment of STC forces into the oil-rich Hadramaut governorate, followed by their movement into the sparsely populated Marah governorate bordering Oman, has allowed President Aidarous al-Zubaidi’s organisation to consolidate control over all eight governorates that historically comprised South Yemen, marking the first time it has achieved such territorial dominance.
The STC’s advance has prompted Oman to temporarily close its border in protest at the display of South Yemen’s flag, although Muscat has since eased its stance, and the shift has also created a striking reversal for Saudi Arabia, which had previously been the primary external actor in Yemen, The Guardian reported.
Saudi forces have withdrawn from the presidential palace and the airport in Aden, signalling that the troops backed by Riyadh inside the UN-recognised government led by President Rashad al-Alimi have been sidelined, while Alimi has relocated to Riyadh, where he has been meeting Western diplomats and attempting to regroup politically.
The seizure of PetroMasila, Yemen’s largest oil company based in Hadramaut, has strengthened Zubaidi’s hand, as control over energy infrastructure enhances the STC’s capacity to negotiate future political arrangements, and analysts suggest that the group may avoid an immediate declaration of independence in favour of proposing a medium-term referendum, with its decisions likely to be shaped by the strategic preferences of the UAE.
Western diplomats and the UN continue to oppose a formal division of Yemen, maintaining support for a Saudi-led roadmap aimed at forming a federal government incorporating the Houthis and southern factions, yet they have been in discreet contact with Zubaidi to assess his intentions, including his relations with Russia and the implications for countering the Iranian-backed Houthis.
Beyond the South’s traditional boundaries, Taiz and Marib remain outside Houthi control, and the STC may consider offering them protectorate status to prevent further northern advances, while Saudi Arabia faces renewed uncertainty about the security of its borders.
Speculation persists that the UAE authorised the STC’s move amid frustration over Riyadh’s request for US intervention in Sudan, and a Saudi delegation in Hadramaut is now under pressure to restore some semblance of influence as the regional balance undergoes a profound shift.