Donald Trump’s desire to secure a Nobel Peace Prize is reported to have driven his push for a hastily arranged ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, negotiated with the connivance of Arab leaders and his regional allies, while complications surrounding the survival of the agreement remain uncertain as Hamas demanded guarantees that Israel would comply with the terms and right-wing Israeli leaders threatened to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government once the agreement is signed.
The ceasefire initiative, described as the best chance for peace since the breakdown of a truce in March, represents the most serious diplomatic attempt to halt the war in Gaza, which has claimed nearly 68,000 lives, most of them civilians.
The plan, backed politically by Arab states and supported by Washington, seeks to balance the immediate humanitarian demand for peace with the political realities of the region, though the details and sequencing of the agreement remain opaque.
The first phase of what the Trump administration has termed a peace plan involves the release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a limited withdrawal by Israeli forces, a process that is fraught with logistical and political challenges.
The administration’s 20-point framework aims to create the conditions for a durable ceasefire and a longer-term resolution, yet critical questions persist over whether Hamas will disarm and what political future awaits Gaza under Israeli oversight.
Analysts note that the effort reflects Trump’s characteristic blend of unpredictability and personal ambition, as he seeks to project himself as a peacemaker on the global stage ahead of the Nobel announcement scheduled for Friday. The move has also been seen as an attempt to strengthen his image internationally while providing his administration with a symbolic diplomatic achievement.
However, the fragility of the arrangement is underscored by Hamas’s insistence that international mediators ensure Israel’s full compliance with the deal, amid fears that Israel might resume its offensive once hostages are returned.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, faces pressure from his far-right coalition partners, including key ministers who have threatened to withdraw support for the government in protest against any truce with Hamas.
Trump is expected to travel to the region for the signing ceremony, though scepticism persists among diplomats that the agreement will hold, given the deep mistrust between the parties and the political stakes for both leaders. For the US president, it is a defining moment that could either deliver a diplomatic victory or expose the fragility of a peace built on haste and political ambition.