Following a deadly Israeli strike in South Beirut that killed a key Hezbollah commander, Iran expects Hezbollah to escalate its attacks by targeting deeper into Israeli territory and going beyond just military sites.
The conflict has intensified since October 7, when Hamas, Hezbollah's Palestinian ally, launched an attack on Israel, triggering a broader conflict in Gaza. Hezbollah has been engaged in frequent exchanges of fire with Israeli forces, targeting military positions across the border. However, the recent Israeli strike in a densely populated residential area in Beirut has shifted the dynamics of the conflict.
The Israeli attack, which resulted in the death of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and five civilians, has been described by Iran as crossing previously observed boundaries. In retaliation, Hezbollah is expected to respond with increased aggression, targeting beyond the border and extending its operations to more strategic and civilian locations.
Besides Hezbollah's anticipated response, Iran and Hamas have also vowed retaliation. The situation further escalated with the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, adding to the tension. Both Hezbollah and Hamas have indicated that they will take action against Israel and its allies, signalling a potential broadening of the conflict.