Oman plans to raise non-oil share of economy to 91.6% by 2040
Oman aims to increase the non-oil contribution to its economy to 91.6 per cent by 2040, with manufacturing, tourism, education and downstream industries supporting its shift away from dependence on oil.
The ambition forms part of Oman Vision 2040’s economic diversification and fiscal sustainability strategy, which combines industrial development, technology and entrepreneurship with reforms to government revenue and expenditure.
Against a 2017 baseline of 61 per cent, the non-oil share of GDP is intended to reach 83.9 per cent by 2030 and 91.6 per cent by 2040. Oil’s contribution would fall from 39 per cent to 16.1 per cent and then 8.4 per cent over the same periods.
Industry, exports and investment
The strategy seeks closer integration between economic sectors, particularly upstream and downstream industries, to expand production capacity and the range of goods Oman exports.
Manufacturing, tourism, education and oil- and gas-based downstream activities are among the sectors expected to contribute to diversification.
Wider trade partnerships, investment in high-value industries and competitive products and services would support growth in regional and international markets.
Oman plans to identify priority diversification sectors and complementary industries every five years, allowing national plans to respond to changing business opportunities.
The broader objective is an inclusive economy capable of generating high-value employment, expanding exports and adapting to developments in global markets.
Research and the knowledge economy
Technology, knowledge and innovation are central to plans to develop goods and services with greater technological content and higher value.
Businesses, universities, government organisations and research centres would work together on research and development, supporting creativity, entrepreneurship and industrial advancement.
Education and skills development would prepare Omanis for technology-driven industries and emerging opportunities. Investment in research is intended to improve productivity, strengthen industrial competitiveness and create additional sources of growth.
A separate indicator is being developed to measure the contribution of knowledge-based activities to GDP. The supplied material does not specify a baseline or numerical goals.
Digital infrastructure and business conditions
The vision calls for integrated information technology infrastructure serving all economic sectors and keeping pace with international developments.
Cybersecurity is a priority to ensure businesses can adopt digital systems within a secure and reliable environment.
Modern infrastructure would help companies improve efficiency and respond to industrial change, with technological developments incorporated into national plans and programs.
Updated, flexible legislation would support investment, competition and equal opportunities for businesses. Incentives and fewer barriers to entrepreneurship are intended to attract domestic and international investors.
Support for small and medium-sized enterprises, innovation-led businesses and industries with strong export potential would also contribute to private sector growth.
Revenue, spending and debt
Oman’s fiscal plans seek closer coordination between monetary, fiscal and economic policies to maintain stability and manage public resources responsibly.
Diversifying government income, improving expenditure efficiency and strengthening financial planning would reduce dependence on oil revenues. The strategy also calls for effective use of natural resources, better budget management and control of public debt.
Non-oil revenue is intended to rise from 9.5 per cent of GDP in 2017 to 15 per cent by 2030 and 18 per cent by 2040.
Public expenditure, which represented 45.1 per cent of GDP in 2017, would fall to 34 per cent by 2030 and 25 per cent by 2040. These figures concern expenditure relative to the size of the economy.
The current account deficit is intended to narrow from 14.8 per cent of GDP in 2017 to 7 per cent by 2030 and 1.5 per cent by 2040.
Gross debt stood at 44 per cent of GDP in 2017. The vision specifies a ceiling of 60 per cent to keep debt at manageable levels and support long-term fiscal sustainability.
Industrial and technological benchmarks
The strategy includes international benchmarks based on historical figures, rather than Oman’s current rankings.
For the Economic Complexity Index, Oman’s 2016 baseline was −0.004 on a scale from −3 to 3, placing it 62nd among 126 countries. The goals are a value above 1.186 or a top-20 position by 2030, followed by above 1.577 or the top 10 by 2040.
In the Networked Readiness Index, Oman recorded 4.31 out of seven in 2016, ranking 52nd among 139 countries. The intended levels are above 5.4 or the top 20 by 2030, and above 5.6 or the top 10 by 2040.
For the drivers of production measure in the Readiness for the Future of Production assessment, the 2018 baseline was 5.13 out of 10, ranked 45th among 100 countries. Oman seeks a score above 6.73 or a top-20 position by 2030, followed by above 7.2 or the top 10 by 2040.
For production structure, Oman scored 4.00 out of 10 in 2018, ranking 69th among 100 countries. The goals are above 6.21 or the top 20 by 2030, rising to above 7.34 or the top 10 by 2040.
The measures connect industrial and technological development with sustainable public finances, supporting long-term investment and a stronger economic base for future generations.