Arab parties set for 19 seats, but both Netanyahu and opposition rule out a coalition with them

After the tumultuous tenure of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, marked by domestic unrest, the October 2023 Hamas attack, Israel’s subsequent genocidal military offensive in Gaza and its war with Iran, exit polls from the recent Israeli elections suggest that neither side has secured a clear majority, while Arab parties are projected to win up to 19 seats in the Knesset.

The exit polls, published by Israel’s major television networks, put both the governing coalition and the opposition grouping led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot at 51 seats each, well short of the 61 required for a parliamentary majority in the 120-member Knesset, raising the prospect of weeks of negotiations and political uncertainty.

Addressing cheering supporters at 3 am, Netanyahu vowed to form a right-wing government through agreements with his Likud party, far-right factions and religious parties, declaring that the “Jewish and Zionist majority must unite”.

Eisenkot, however, insisted that voters had opted for change and urged the 77-year-old prime minister to retire from politics, while former prime minister Yair Lapid described the preliminary results as a crushing defeat for Netanyahu’s bloc.

With more than a third of the ballots counted, preliminary official figures showed Likud leading with 28 seats, against 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar party, although the final distribution remained uncertain as the count continued.

The election was also distinguished by a historic surge in participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel, who constitute approximately 21 per cent of the country’s population, with turnout reportedly approaching 80 per cent, while overall participation reached 77.7 per cent, the highest since 1999.

Exit polls projected that Arab-led parties, including the Joint List and Ra’am, could collectively secure up to 19 seats, substantially strengthening their parliamentary presence and potentially making them decisive in determining the next government.

Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas expressed hope that the anti-Netanyahu bloc, including his party, could eventually reach the required majority, although both major camps have faced political constraints over cooperation with Arab parties.

Exit polls projected Palestinian parties to win around 18 seats, up from 10, but their role in government formation remains uncertain as Netanyahu has ruled out a government backed by them, while Eisenkot has said Arab-led parties do not meet Zionist criteria to govern.

Netanyahu has ruled out a government dependent on Palestinian parties, while Eisenkot’s camp has also faced criticism for excluding Arab-led groups from its coalition plans, prompting former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas to warn that Arab voters could no longer be marginalised and approached only when their parliamentary support was needed.

The campaign was further inflamed by Netanyahu’s warnings about rising Arab turnout, which Arab politicians condemned as racist, while his allegations that the left and Arab voters were attempting to steal the election were rejected by the Central Elections Committee.

The vote took place amid mounting international scrutiny over Israel’s conduct in Gaza, accusations of genocide and ethnic cleansing, and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Netanyahu over alleged war crimes.

If neither bloc can assemble a majority, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister, prolonging negotiations and potentially paving the way for another election in a country that held five polls between 2019 and 2022.