The risk of dying from chronic diseases has increased in India, while it has declined in most parts of the world, according to a study published in The Lancet.
The study analysed data from 2010 to 2019, the decade before the Covid pandemic.
Professor Majid Ezzati from the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, the lead author, said, “The chances of an Indian dying of a non-communicable disease - like cardiovascular conditions, cancer, or chronic respiratory illnesses - increased between 2010 and 2019.”
The study found that the risk rose by 2.1% for women and 0.1% for men. The mortality risk is highest for women over 40 and men over 55.
For women, the probability of dying from an NCD between birth and age 80 increased from 46.6% in 2011 to 48.7% in 2019, after a slight decline from 46.7% in 2001.
The smaller increase in men’s mortality risk is linked to better diagnosis and treatment of eight causes of death, including ischemic heart disease and liver cirrhosis.
The study also pointed out that ischemic heart disease and diabetes, including chronic kidney disease from diabetes, contributed significantly to the rise in NCD deaths for both sexes between 2010 and 2019.
There were improvements too. Deaths from cirrhosis of the liver and other unspecified NCDs decreased for both men and women. Men also saw declines in deaths from stomach cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), stroke, and other circulatory diseases.
Lung cancer in India was another area of concern. The study highlighted India as one of only five countries, alongside Armenia, Iran, Egypt, and Papua New Guinea, where lung cancer mortality increased.
The authors warned that their findings should not be examined too closely because of “very low” data quality, making the results “subject to substantial uncertainty.”
Globally, the probability of dying from an NCD rose in 33 of 185 countries for women and 38 for men. For men, it decreased in 152 countries, while for women it decreased in 147 countries.