US intelligence agencies have issued a warning about the increasing likelihood of an armed conflict between India and China, citing escalating tensions and substantial troop deployments along their disputed border.
In a report released on Monday, March 11, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) highlighted the strained relationship between the two Asian giants, emphasizing the risk of miscalculation and escalation into armed conflict due to sporadic encounters between their militaries.
The report underlined the persistent strain posed by the disputed border, noting that despite no significant cross-border clashes since 2020, both countries have maintained large troop deployments. These deployments, coupled with sporadic encounters between opposing forces, have raised concerns about the potential for miscalculation leading to armed conflict.
Additionally, the report shed light on China's ambitions to establish overseas military bases, particularly in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, as part of its broader strategy to project power beyond its borders. This expansionist move by China has further heightened tensions in the region.
While India and China have engaged in efforts to enhance infrastructure projects near the border since the military standoff in the Ladakh sector began in May 2020, the situation remains volatile. Approximately 50,000 troops from each side are stationed in the area, with India emphasizing that bilateral relations cannot be normalized until peace and tranquillity are restored in the border areas.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent inauguration of the Sela tunnel in Arunachal Pradesh underscores India's commitment to bolstering all-weather connectivity to strategically vital regions like Tawang.
However, tensions persist as India reportedly lost about 1,000 square kilometres of territory to Chinese control in Ladakh in 2020, according to intelligence inputs provided to the Union government. Despite twenty-eight rounds of negotiations between the two countries, the deadlock remains unresolved.
The report also drew attention to the fragile global order, highlighting China's military expansion plans, aggressive cyber operations, and potential interference in the upcoming 2024 US presidential elections. Furthermore, ongoing conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict add to the complexity of the global security landscape.
In light of these developments, US intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the situation and urging diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions between India and China. However, the risk of armed conflict looms large, posing a significant threat to regional stability and global security.