Tamil Nadu emerges as major drought hotspot, 52-year study finds

Chennai: Tamil Nadu is emerging as one of India's major drought hotspots, with a 52-year climate study finding a sharp expansion in drought-affected areas across South Peninsular India since the turn of the century.

The study, published in the International Journal of Climatology, analysed rainfall and temperature data from 1971 to 2022. Researchers from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, the India Meteorological Department, and Atria University examined climate extremes using the Standardised Precipitation-Evaporation Index, which accounts for both rainfall and atmospheric water demand.

The analysis found that drought-affected areas in South Peninsular India increased substantially after 2000, with more than 40% of the region affected by drought in some years. Between 2011 and 2021, large parts of southern, central and northeastern India recorded drought recurrence exceeding 20% during the decade.

The study identified southern India as showing the country's clearest long-term drought signal, with the eastern coastal belt, including Tamil Nadu, among the most severely affected areas.

Tamil Nadu's vulnerability becomes particularly evident when the northeast monsoon fails. In 2016, the state received 62% less rainfall than normal during the northeast monsoon. As a result, 13,305 of its 16,682 villages were declared drought-hit, while all 32 districts were classified as drought-affected.

The state's latest assessment of El Niño-related risks has also flagged drought, water shortages, and reduced reservoir inflows as major concerns. Its El Niño advisory committee has warned that water stress and drought risks could persist through 2027.

The panel has recommended promoting short-duration, low-water and heat- and drought-resistant crops, along with incentives to shift away from water-intensive cultivation as Tamil Nadu confronts growing climate pressures.