Though confidential, the judicial commission’s report on the Sambhal violence is understood to raise communally charged issues such as Hindu population decline, appeasement policies, historical divides, alleged foreign weapons, and a Samajwadi Party leader’s speech, aligning with the ruling right-wing government’s narrative against Muslims.

The three-member commission, headed by retired Allahabad High Court judge Devendra Kumar Arora and including former senior police and administrative officers, had been set up to investigate the clashes of November 24 last year, which left four people dead and nearly thirty policemen injured, following a court-monitored survey at the Shahi Jama Masjid in Sambhal.

The 400-page report was formally handed over to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Thursday, with officials clarifying that it would remain confidential until it was first studied by the state cabinet and later presented before the Assembly, though political debate has already been triggered by speculative accounts of its contents, according to The Indian Express.

According to information circulating through official and political sources, the report is said to identify a provocative speech by Samajwadi Party MP Zia ur Rehman Barq as one of the triggers of the unrest, while also linking the violence to historical animosities that have persisted in the region, including past clashes between groups identified as Turks and Pathans.

The commission is also believed to have listed fifteen major riots between 1936 and 2019 in Sambhal, cumulatively accounting for more than two hundred deaths, which it reportedly cites as evidence of a longstanding cycle of communal conflict in the district.

The report is also said to highlight the impact of alleged appeasement policies in aggravating tensions, suggesting that these contributed to a demographic shift and a gradual decline in the Hindu population of the region.

The narrative extends further with claims that encroachments over time on pilgrimage sites and sacred wells had exacerbated grievances, while a local gang leader dealing in counterfeit currency was also identified as having played a disruptive role in the chain of events.

Reports further suggest that the commission makes the striking allegation that a number of weapons used in the clashes were of foreign manufacture, many traced to the United States, thereby hinting at external influences or organised networks behind the violence.

The political fallout from the report’s submission has already begun, as the ruling party has indicated its readiness to frame policies aimed at halting what it describes as an exodus of Hindus and reversing demographic trends, while opposition leaders have criticised the selective leaks as an attempt to divert public attention from pressing socio-economic issues such as unemployment and agrarian distress.

The Sambhal dispute had originated on 19 November last year, when Hindu petitioners filed a case asserting that the Shahi Jama Masjid was built over a temple in the sixteenth century, leading to two surveys ordered by the district court.

The second survey, held on 24 November, sparked violent clashes that resulted in casualties and serious injuries to police personnel, after which large-scale arrests were made, including cases filed against thousands of unidentified individuals. Subsequent government actions claimed the removal of encroachments from dozens of religious sites and wells, thereby entrenching the dispute further.

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