As the new Modi government is set to redraw the electoral boundaries of the country, the RSS-linked magazine, Organiser, raised concerns over the potential disadvantage in the process, particularly in western and southern states, where the population is controlled, emphasizing the need for a national policy to mitigate the perceived "population imbalance, The Indian Express reported.
While the magazine highlights concern over the rising Muslim population compared to the lower birth rates among Hindus, it also flags the potential population imbalance this could create in the delimitation process. This imbalance is likely to favour the BJP’s electoral gains, as most of its seats are in northern India, aligning with the opposition’s objections to the delimitation.
Opposition parties, particularly those strong in the southern regions, have raised alarms in Parliament about how delimitation based on population could skew elections in favour of northern parties. The southern states, having successfully implemented population control measures, fear losing representation in Parliament if the base population for delimitation is adjusted post-census.
The editor of Organiser, Prafulla Ketkar, argues that the country requires a population policy to ensure that growth does not disproportionately impact any religious community or region. Such disparities, he cautions, could lead to socio-economic inequalities and political conflicts. Ketkar's editorial aligns with concerns from opposition parties, like the DMK, which argue that population-based delimitation could reduce the representation of southern states.
In a recent parliamentary debate on the Women’s Reservation Bill, DMK MP Kanimozhi echoed these concerns, emphasizing that delimitation based on population would disadvantage southern states. TMC MP Mahua Moitra supported this view, citing data indicating a minimal increase in seats for Kerala and Tamil Nadu compared to substantial gains for Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
Ketkar’s editorial also highlights "religious and regional imbalances," pointing out the significant growth of the Muslim population in certain areas, particularly bordering districts. Despite the national population stabilizing, he notes, disparities remain among different religions and regions. This demographic shift, he argues, could influence political representation and necessitates cautious attention.
While census data has recorded higher birth rates among Muslims compared to Hindus, the gap is reportedly narrowing. The decadal growth rate of Muslims has seen a steeper decline than that of Hindus, according to various surveys. Notably, the fertility rate among Muslims has dropped significantly over the past two decades.
Population control and a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) are key ideological goals for the RSS. However, with the BJP’s reduced numbers in the Lok Sabha, passing a national UCC law appears challenging, especially given the reservations from key allies like the Janata Dal (United) and Telugu Desam Party.
The Organiser's cover story, written by staffer Ravi Mishra, elaborates on Ketkar’s concerns, suggesting that demographic changes pose a greater threat to national security than other issues. The article links demographic shifts to national and state politics, citing instances of electoral success in regions with significant Muslim populations.
Additionally, another article in the magazine claims that increasing cases of Polycystic Ovarian Disease (PCOD) in India are part of an international conspiracy to keep the country’s population low, thus denying it the demographic dividend.
These discussions come ahead of the first Budget Session of the 18th Lok Sabha, set to begin on July 22. In her interim Budget speech in February, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced plans for a high-powered committee to address the challenges posed by rapid population growth and demographic changes, though the committee has yet to be formed.